984
FXUS63 KABR 241627 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ALONG I-90 IN LYMAN COUNTY
AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE END
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN. TREND
ALSO CONTINUES FOR UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS INTO THE
1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THIS AFTERNOON'S
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING A BIT BREEZY/GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL SD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SD ON THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT AHEAD OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, THERE'S AN ENHANCED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND, AS IS TYPICAL WITH ARCTIC FRONTS, THAT SETS UP
TOWARD EVENING. HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL NOW PICKING UP ON
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. HREF PROBS AND WPC QPF
REFLECT THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS. NBM 25-75TH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THAT
THINKING. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES SHOW
MOST AREAS OF THE CWA GETTING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. FOR NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS ARE RESTRICTED TO LYMAN AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES ALONG I-90 AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. THERE COULD BE
SOME REDUCED VSBY AS THE SNOW IS FALLING WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
MPH.
CAA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, THEY
COULD DROP FURTHER; THIS IS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL SD WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -8 TO -10C. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER OVER THE EAST
THROUGH MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
MONDAY EVENING, THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EC ALSO HAS THIS SHORTWAVE BUT
MOVES IT ACROSS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THIS, WE HAVE
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WHICH, CLUSTERS SEEM TO INDICATE, HAS BECOME
MORE OF A TROUGH THAN A FULL ON LOW. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WE STAY IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT
(LESS THAN 25%) POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES (WARMEST WEST RIVER). WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 20Z
TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER NEAR KATY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. REDUCED VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING NEAR KATY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WISE
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