330
FXUS63 KABR 210527 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE'S AROUND A 15% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STRETCHES FROM BISMARCK TO SIOUX
FALLS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING A NICE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN
ND. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE
IMPACTFUL ACROSS ND THAN IT IS OVER SD. MBG ONLY HAD ABOUT 10
MINUTES OF -SN WITH VISIBILITY ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 7SM AS IT
MOVED THROUGH. IT'S BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OBS/WEB CAMS
SHOWING SNOW ACROSS SD, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-30% POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH, THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCUMULATE A DUSTING AS WE CONTINUE TO
SATURATE.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WE GET INTO A WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS THESE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST.
THEREFORE, IT WOULD APPEAR WE STAY ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL A
RATHER COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD NONETHELESS, AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
LOWER-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS 925MB
TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO C ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY 00Z SUN. WITH VERY
LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY, EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE
30S, AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. ACROSS THE
EAST, NOT QUITE AS WARM ALOFT, AND WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND,
STUCK IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF SD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS A
CONNECTED SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE, CREATING THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD SUNDAY
EVENING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS VARY THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME KEEPING IT OVER NORTHERN SD AND OTHERS
KEEPING IT TO THE NORTH IN ND. NBM POP VALUES STAY AROUND/BELOW 20%
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS PRECIPITATION IS WHAT TYPE WILL BE
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE AROUND
900-750MB AS WELL AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
SUNDAY EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL CAA MOVES IN, THE WARM NOSE DOES SHRINK
SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER IT IS PAST 12 UTC MONDAY BEFORE THE NOSE FALLS
BELOW FREEZING. THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MODEL MEMBERS THAT HAVE THE
SOUNDING FALL BELOW FREEZING EARLIER IN THE EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL AS SLEET
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY HAVE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH LEADS TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL. THE ECMWF P-TYPE
CHART SHOWS THAT LESS THAN 20% OF MEMBERS HAVE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN SD, WITH A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE,
AND RAIN IN THOSE MEMBERS. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR ICE LOOKS TO
BE LOW AS QPF VALUES ARE LOWER OVER THE AREA.
ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO SD BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS THE
RIDGE IS OVER SD, THE MID-LEVELS HAVE POCKETS OF WAA THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. THESE POCKETS OF WAA HELP TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, CAUSING TEMPERATURE TUESDAY ONWARD TO BE 5-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO
UPPER 40S DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND GUSTS LOOK TO BE BELOW 25KTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS VARY WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, WHICH CAUSES THERE TO BE DISAGREEMENT
IN WHEN/WHERE/IF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...WISE
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