893
FXUS63 KABR 222335 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (25-50%) OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
AND AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AT 2 PM CST, SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH. OUT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S, WITH LOW 50S JUST OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. AN AREA OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS HAPPENING OUT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING, THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY, WHILE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST,
POTENTIALLY GLANCING FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING LIQUID PRECIPITATION
(SURFACE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING). ISSUED AN SPS FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, SHOULD THE AREA OF FORCING/LIFT ALOFT HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TOWARD
THIS CWA THIS EVENING. BEYOND THE ACTUAL FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING, REMNANT LOW STRATUS THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH, WITH ENOUGH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER ITSELF, TO PROMOTE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH IT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MID-LEVEL
WAA OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THIS WAA HELPS TO INCREASE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES 5-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OUT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SD HELPS TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY, WITH GUSTS
GETTING UP/AROUND 20KTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD.
THE MODELS AND CLUSTERS THEN START TO MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO SD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM
UT/CO, HOWEVER THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE
MODELS AS WELL AS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER
EASTERN SD WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT OVER OK/MO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOWERS THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN SD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN SD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
SD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NBM SHOWS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER POPS OF 30 OCCURRING OVER NORTHEASTERN SD
DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT THE POPS START TO DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS DURING THIS TIME HAVE VARIOUS POCKETS OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION MOVING OVER SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME STAY
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND UNCHANGING, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, THE SPREAD IN
THE MAX TEMPERATURES REMAINS SMALL THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL AS CONSISTENT
IN PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MODEL RUNS, WHICH HELPS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES HELP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RAIN. THE ECMWF P-TYPE CHART
DOES SHOW THAT THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ON
SATURDAY OVER SISSETON AND WATERTOWN, HOWEVER, MOST MEMBERS THAT SHOW
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING HAVE IT AS RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LEAST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE THESE LOWER CLOUDS IS KPIR, SO LEFT MENTION TO
ONLY "FEW" AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS THERE MAY BE
SOME BR/FG IN THE REGION AS WELL COME EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY -FZRA/-FZDZ/-SN THAT MAY SKIRT JUST INTO
FAR NORTHERN SD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
AFFECTING KABR/KATY IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AMEND TAFS AS
NEEDED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...TMT
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