485
FXUS63 KABR 230539 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1139 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (25-50%) OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
AND AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
PRECIP THUS FAR HAS REMAINED NORTH OF THE BORDER IN ND, BUT
CLOSELY WATCHING TRENDS NORTH OF US AS EVERYTHING SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE CWA. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS SUGGESTED MAYBE THIS PRECIP HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAX CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN SD. ALREADY ADJUSTED POP GRIDS EARLIER TO
DELAY ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCE (40-50%) POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA AS ACTIVITY REMAINED ACROSS ND. ALTHOUGH, MAY MAKE SOME
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD/EXPAND POPS LATER INTO THE EVENING,
AND FURTHER WEST BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM AND WHAT
WE'RE SEEING IN REGARDS TO HI-RES MODELS. THAT SAID, THE SLIGHTLY
LATER ONSET OF ANY PRECIP ALSO MEANS LESS ICING POTENTIAL AS
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW (PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE?) BY AROUND 09Z AND AFTER. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE COMING IN.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AT 2 PM CST, SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH. OUT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S, WITH LOW 50S JUST OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. AN AREA OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS HAPPENING OUT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING, THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY, WHILE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST,
POTENTIALLY GLANCING FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING LIQUID PRECIPITATION
(SURFACE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING). ISSUED AN SPS FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, SHOULD THE AREA OF FORCING/LIFT ALOFT HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TOWARD
THIS CWA THIS EVENING. BEYOND THE ACTUAL FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING, REMNANT LOW STRATUS THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH, WITH ENOUGH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER ITSELF, TO PROMOTE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH IT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER SD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MID-LEVEL
WAA OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THIS WAA HELPS TO INCREASE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES 5-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OUT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SD HELPS TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY, WITH GUSTS
GETTING UP/AROUND 20KTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD.
THE MODELS AND CLUSTERS THEN START TO MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO SD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM
UT/CO, HOWEVER THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE
MODELS AS WELL AS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER
EASTERN SD WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT OVER OK/MO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOWERS THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN SD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN SD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
SD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NBM SHOWS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER POPS OF 30 OCCURRING OVER NORTHEASTERN SD
DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT THE POPS START TO DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS DURING THIS TIME HAVE VARIOUS POCKETS OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION MOVING OVER SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME STAY
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND UNCHANGING, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, THE SPREAD IN
THE MAX TEMPERATURES REMAINS SMALL THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WELL AS CONSISTENT
IN PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MODEL RUNS, WHICH HELPS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES HELP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RAIN. THE ECMWF P-TYPE CHART
DOES SHOW THAT THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ON
SATURDAY OVER SISSETON AND WATERTOWN, HOWEVER, MOST MEMBERS THAT SHOW
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING HAVE IT AS RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL COVER KMBG, BUT MORE UNCERTAIN IN KPIR. FOR NOW, INCLUDED A
"SCT" MENTION IN KPIR BY LATE MORNING. IT NOW APPEARS BR/FG IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD BY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, STILL
WATCHING AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE ND/SD
BORDER AT 06Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY AFFECT KABR EARLY
ON IN THE TAF PERIOD, IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR -SN.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...TMT
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