834
FXUS63 KABR 260933
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TODAY BEFORE RETURNING
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG THIS MORNING
COULD STILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
- VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (~20% CHANCE FOR MOISTURE) POTENTIAL
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN LATE
FRIDAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES (MAINLY EITHER VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) IS POSSIBLE. IF ROAD SURFACES
FAIL TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING, TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE COOLING TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, PERSISTING INTO THE NEW
YEAR.
- THERE IS CURRENTLY AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
AT 3 AM CST, WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, SKIES ARE GENERALLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING COOLED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S FOR THE MOST PART, DESPITE A WEST-COMPONENT BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND DIRECTION (GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH). ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, SKIES ARE OVERCAST, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG ONGOING
OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS REGION OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDY SKY CONDITION HAVE REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
THERE IS A PRETTY ACTIVE POLAR JET STREAM HAPPENING OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. OVER THIS REGION, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
RATHER WEAK AND BAGGY. THE SURFACE TROF THAT HAS WORKED ABOUT HALF-
WAY THROUGH THE CWA WILL FADE AWAY TODAY, AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE BIT. WITH NO END IN SIGHT TO THE NOTABLE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION AND ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
IT, EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL TO PERSIST. CONTINUING,
FOR THE MOMENT, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA, BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO TANK BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. VSBYS RIGHT NOW ARE NOT THAT BAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. COLLABORATED THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY,
THOUGH, IN CASE VSBYS DO END UP TANKING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/FOG AND CLOUD-COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER A STILL QUITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION (SEE 00Z KABR RAOB) ON LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, THERE IS YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL
FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE ENERGY THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY (AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF) WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A WEST-COMPONENT SURFACE WIND/SURFACE TROF
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWA INTO MINNESOTA. IF THIS IS ABLE TO
HAPPEN, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD BE
THWARTED, FOR AWHILE ANYWAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE-BASED
(MAINLY HI-RES CAM) 20-ISH POPS HANGING AROUND HEADING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. P-TYPE, SHOULD ANY
PRECIPITATION BE GENERATED AND ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND, IS EXPECTED
TO EITHER BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. BUT, AGAIN, QPF GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME IS "NON-MEASURABLE" FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, MEANING NOT ALL
THAT CONCERNED JUST NOW IF AN HOUR OR TWO OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN FRIDAY MORNING HAPPENS, AND IS CHASED AWAY BY TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO RESIDE ON THE WARM AIR SIDE OF THINGS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SO BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOK
TO STAY TO THE EAST, AND THE ABR FORECAST AREA NOW HAS POPS OF LESS
THAN 15% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BIGGER OVERNIGHT IMPACT WILL
COME IN THE FORM OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
HAS BEEN OCCUPYING THE REGION THE LAST FEW NIGHTS GIVING THE AREA
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, TAKING AWAY THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECKS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RUN 10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS COVERED BY FOG ON
SATURDAY). FORECASTED HIGHS OF UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN THE TOP 10 ON RECORD, BUT STILL WELL SHY OF THE TOP
SPOT (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT THE FIVE CLIMATE SITES). TEMPERATURES
ARE SET TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR EYE ON MONDAY'S SYSTEM, WHEN PRECIPITATION
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SET TO IMPACT SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO APPROXIMATELY 40-50%. PROBABILITIES FALL OFF
TRAVELING FURTHER NORTH, BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL NOW HAVE
AT LEAST A 10% CHANCE. QPF 25TH-75TH SPREAD FOR THIS EVENT IS AROUND
0-0.15" FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
LARGE, STILL OFFERS SOME ROOM FOR SOME DECENT VARIABILITY. MOISTURE
ALOFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROFILE
FROM THE DGZ AND ABOVE. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
PROFILE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY SET TO BE BELOW FREEZING,
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE HERE. GIVEN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF UP TO 0.25", A REASONABLE "WORST CASE SCENARIO" FOR
THIS EVENT IS 2-3" OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, ~1" IS
CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING KPIR AND KMBG. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KABR, WILL SEE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EASTERN PART OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING KATY, WILL SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FALL TO LIFR/IFR
VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE VSBYS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS, BUT IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ019-020-022-023.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PARKIN
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