969
FXUS63 KABR 262330 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG RETURNS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO AROUND ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (~20% CHANCE FOR MOISTURE) POTENTIAL
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN LATE
FRIDAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES (MAINLY EITHER VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) IS POSSIBLE. IF ROAD SURFACES
FAIL TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING, TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE REMAINS AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW MONDAY FOR
MAINLY CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO SEE SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S. FURTHER EAST,
STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN, ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVERALL
FROM THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT, LIKELY FILLING
BACK IN ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WESTWARD. AS FOR
VISIBILITY, SIGNALS POINT TO THE GLACIAL LAKES/COTEAU REGION SEEING
THE LOWEST VALES, MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG
RETURNING TO THAT AREA, BUT WHETHER OR NOT WIDESPREAD ONE-QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HAVING
SAID THAT, SIGNS POINT TO A FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTFUL LOW
VISIBILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CWA, SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 02Z TO 18Z TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DID NOT ISSUE FOR ROBERTS COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS VISIBILITY DATA FROM SEVERAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THAT AREA FREE FROM THE VERY LOW VISIBILITY VALUES, BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHT ANYWAY.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING MORE TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOMEWHAT LACKING INGREDIENTS FOR ANY ORGANIZED MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. ONE PROBABLY CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY/AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITHIN AREAS OF FOG IN THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND RELATIVELY MINOR IMPACTS IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN (PLAIN DRIZZLE AND NOT FREEZING DRIZZLE), HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL ENHANCE
MIXING, AND NORMALLY LIMIT THE MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS, HOWEVER
THE NAMNEST AND ARW STILL DOES HAVE SOME PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULDN'T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY FEATURES EXPANDING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
WILL HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON DAYTIME HEATING. REGARDLESS,
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO START AND ALOFT, HIGHS STILL LOOK TO RUN
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS KIND OF HYBRID CLIPPER/COLORADO
LOW. THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH OUR PORTION OF THE I90 CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME
MOISTURE, WHILE THE CANADIAN IS A FARTHER NORTH OUTLIER. NBM P-TYPE
SUPPORTS INITIALLY RAIN, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE MILDER AIR
OVERHEAD BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY MONDAY IS FINALLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARDS.
THESE DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW MILD THE
AIRMASS IS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER INITIAL RAIN WILL CAUSE
ANY ICING ISSUES BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. OTHERWISE NBM
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" SNOWFALL IS JUST 40% AND ONLY 20% FOR
EXCEEDING 2", THOUGH ITS STILL IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME RANGE WITH
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR A SHIFT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
850MB TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE THEREAFTER WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DO REMAIN WITHIN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE. THUS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
EXTENDED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF A DEEP SNOWPACK GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, INCLUDING KATY. A PORTION
OF THIS REGION WILL ALSO SEE VSBYS FALL TO IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE WEST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH KABR LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED, AND POSSIBLY KMBG. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ007-011-019>023.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN
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