491
FXUS63 KABR 291705 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1105 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO NEAR 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
- DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 40 MPH TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND SISSETON HILLS.
- THERE IS AROUND A 15% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IN THE
FORM OF SNOW, OVER EXTREME PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER CENTRAL SD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- COLD AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE 09Z SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWED A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND EXTENDING FROM THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK RIDGE WAS SET UP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MN BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON WEST TO EAST, INCREASING TO AROUND
10-15MPH BY 21Z. THIS WILL BE WHEN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
ALBERTA SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 03Z AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO MN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AN
ONTARIO.
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE 20S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DIMINISHED, WITH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT HIGHER, WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NEAR OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN THE 20S. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU TONIGHT FOR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED WINDS WITH GUSTS
NEARING 40MPH. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH AS TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT SISSETON/8D3 ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF COLDER AIR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. CLUSTERS INDICATE SPLIT
FLOW AS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN CONUS AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEHIND THIS LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL
PUSH EAST AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FLOW, HOWEVER, THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CLUSTERS WHETHER THIS WILL BE ZONAL OR
NORTHWEST FLOW (50/50 CHANCE) DURING THIS TIME. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHERN PACIFIC AS IT RETROGRADES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE
FOR SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/ENERGY PUSHING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHWARD IN CANADA FRIDAY (BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE),
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A RATHER ELONGATED LOW, ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM, WILL SET UP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES/CANADA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SKIRT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME
OVERALL TIMING ISSUES AS GEFS/GEPS IS A BIT QUICKER ON THE TRACK
EASTWARD THAN ENS AT THIS TIME.
CLUSTERS ALONG WITH THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS/ENS ENSEMBLES AGREE MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA AS NBM SHOWS THIS AS
WELL, WITH POPS AT OR UNDER 15% ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER INTO WESTERN
MN (HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EC METEOGRAMS
HIGHLIGHTS PRECIP CHANCES 10% OR LESS AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, ANY TRACK SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL LED TO THIS PRECIP DIPPING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. ONGOING CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM/LEE SURFACE TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY (WITH ONGOING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY). NBM HIGHLIGHTS POPS OF
15-30% FROM CENTRAL SD EASTWARD TO ABOUT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM, QPF
LOOKS TO BE IS PRETTY MINIMAL AS PROBABILITY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION
>0.10" THROUGH MONDAY EVENING PER ENS/GEFS IS ONLY 20-30% OVER
CENTRAL SD. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SNOW AT THIS POINT AS THE COLD
AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS BRINGS US TO TEMPERATURES, WE WILL GO FROM +1 TO +7C AT 850MB
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S) TO -12 TO -17C BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHS LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S)! TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS WITH THE LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS ONLY AROUND -10F ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER, SO NOTHING CLOSE TO THE ARCTIC TEMPS WE HAD. STILL
SOME WIGGLE ROOM AS NBM 25-75TH SPREAD RUNS ABOUT 12 DEGREES SUNDAY
AND ABOUT 8-12 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...WISE
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