653
FXUS63 KABR 301607 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1007 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO NEAR 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
- COLD AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
WE'RE STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SD. THE LOW WILL SHIFT OVER FAR EASTERN ND AND
WESTERN MN BY 12Z, AND THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MI BY 18Z WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN SD. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR
WHAT WE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A FEW READINGS
NEAR 50 DEGREES (HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR SE COUNTIES).
THE LARGE ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SINK ACROSS
MANITOBA FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 8C THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -6C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STAYING MAINLY IN THE 30S (STILL AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, CENTERED OVER MANITOBA, WILL START
OUT THE LONG TERM AND WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING/SECONDARY CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA AND EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/MT
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. THIS BROAD LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS/CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ITS SHORTWAVE.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SINK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK
RIDGING HERE AND THERE AS THIS LARGE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO HANG
OUT OVER WESTERN CANADA/OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW, SENDING WAVES OF
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERALL NORTH OF THE CWA, CLUSTERS AGREE ON
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP KEEPING OVER ND/MN. HOWEVER 3/4 OF THE
ENSEMBLES DO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA, ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW, ON SATURDAY AND
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN SUNDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EC METEOGRAMS HINT AT 10-20% OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THIS AREA WITH NBM AGREEING WITH 15-25% POPS. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AS NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF>0.10" IS 10% AND
UNDER WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING QPF OF 0.04-0.06". NBM PROBABILITY OF
SNOW>1" IS LESS THAN 10% WITH DETERMINISTIC INDICATING 0.5" AT MOST
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A BIT SOUTH, THIS
WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF POPS/QPF AND VICE VERSA IF TRACKS
MORE NORTH. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY THROUGH MIDDLE PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK PER ONGOING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SURFACE TROUGHING SOUTH
OF HIGH, AND SURFACE TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER ENS/GEFS/NBM. EC METEOGRAMS
INDICATES SNOW CHANCES UP TO 50-60% MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE CWA.
NBM HIGHLIGHT THIS WELL WITH 20-45% CHANCE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH THIS COLD AIR IN
PLACE, PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW. PROBABILITY OF 48 HR PRECIP>0.10" ENDING
TUESDAY AT 12Z IS 25-45% WITH PROBABILITY OF 1" OF SNOW, BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, IS 30-65%, HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD.
STILL A BIT EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
SOME MODEL VARIABILITY.
BEHIND THIS LOW AND INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH, WE WILL GO FROM ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK
WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AND
LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO (PROB OF MIN TEMPS<0 IS
45-75% OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SD). THIS RUNS ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...KF
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