411
FXUS63 KABR 301949
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
149 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
- COLD AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH TO WEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODERATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
FRIDAY. THE HIGH DRAGS IN SOME CAA ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING TONIGHT
LEAVING WIDE THERMAL RANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE HIGH AT 700 MB. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG. GIVEN THE LACK OF LLM, OPTED TO NOT
ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. STRATUS, ON THE
OTHER HAND, IS MORE LIKELY, SO INCREASED SKY COVER AND ADDED A
MENTION TO THE KABR TAF.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SIDE LOW SETS UP
OVER MONTANA AND THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COTEAU, IT SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AGAIN, BUT COULD BE MODERATED BY THE WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER SD WILL BE DISRUPTED SLIGHTLY AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
VARIATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES' LOCATION AND STRENGTH IN
THE MODELS, WHICH CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION OVER SD.
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH IN ND, WITH A FEW SCATTERED PATCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN SD. THEN ANOTHER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE STATE
SUNDAY, PUSHING PRECIPITATION THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THE EC
METEOGRAMS HAVE 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE AND THE NBM SHOWS 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE BOTH DAYS FOR SNOW, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SNOW WILL MAINLY CLIP NORTHEASTERN SD
SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN SD BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT, AS QPF
VALUES ARE AROUND 0.01-0.03 INCHES. THE CLUSTERS SHOW THE
PROBABILITY OF 24HR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF GREATER THAN 0.1IN
SATURDAY AT 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE AND 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE ON SUNDAY,
WITH SUNDAY ALSO HAVING A PROBABILITY OF 10-20 PERCENT FOR A HALF
INCH OF SNOW. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH SD SUNDAY MORNING,
MID-LEVEL CAA PUSHES INTO THE STATE. THIS CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO
START DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, COOLING SATURDAY'S SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY THEN IT WILL COOL EVEN
MORE INTO WORK WEEK, AS MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND 5-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS VARY THE LOCATION OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH LEADS TO VARIATIONS IN THE WHEREABOUTS OF SOME BANDED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE MODELS HAVE THIS BAND
MOVING EITHER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD OR CLIPPING SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE EC METEOGRAMS SHOW A 40-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL OCCURRING ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH A 10-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KABR THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COALESCE ON SOME IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE JAMES VALLEY TOWARD MORNING IN THE AXIS
OF A SFC HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY THE GENERAL
LACK OF MOISTURE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...WISE
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