435
FXUS63 KABR 312146
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
- 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY THAT COULD
LEAD TO 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.
- COLD AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PESTER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN SPOTS THE
LAST FEW HOURS AS THE STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT AND ERODED RETURNING
SUNNY BREAKS OR CLEARING TO SOME SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A COOL NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FETCH TODAY HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURE READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A DECK OF SOME MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IS
ALSO NO OVERTAKING THE REGION, SO OUR AREA WILL ON THE SIDE OF THE
TREND OF MORE CLOUDS VERSUS CLEAR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION WITH TIME. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. A 50-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A BREEZY TO WINDY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS
LIKELY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
SFC TROUGHING SETTING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY COMBINED
WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY COULD TOUCH OFF BRIEF FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, WE WILL SEE A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN TAKE HOLD SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BE 10-20
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY AS MID-LEVEL WAA MOVES OVER SD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE IS ONLY A 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS LOWER AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKES IT HARDER TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH
ONLY A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.1IN OF SNOW MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD.
THE BIGGER STORY IS SUNDAY EVENING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS A BAND
OF SNOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL SD. WHILE THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT THIS IS GOING TO OCCUR, THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND THE CURRENT/PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ON THE LOCATION AND HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE EASED BACK
SLIGHTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WHILE THE QPF HAS INCREASED. THE NBM
HAS QPF VALUES OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES OVER/SLIGHTLY NORTH OF US HWY 14 IN
CENTRAL SD, AND WIDESPREAD QPF VALUES OF 0.05+ INCHES OVER THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THIS LEADS TO A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE AREAS WITH HIGHER QPF, THOUGH
SOME MEMBERS OF THE CLUSTERS HAVE THESE VALUES IN NORTH CENTRAL SD.
THE SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH 25-55 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IS LOWER THAN MONDAY, WITH THE CLUSTERS
SHOWING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OF SNOW TUESDAY AND A
40-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.1 INCH OF SNOW. AFTER TUESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES, BUT IT STILL STAYS ABOVE 20 PERCENT
THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME STAY AROUND 0 AND THE
CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCH OF SNOWFALL DECREASES TO 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE SNOW FOR
WEDNESDAY, THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS OF THE CLUSTERS AND ECMWF THAT
HAVE PICKED UP ON THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SMALL AREA OF MID-LEVEL WAA MOVES OVER EASTERN SD.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE MODELS AS IT GETS CLOSER TO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF IT SHOULD NOTED AND MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER KABR/KMBG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KATY/KPIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN LOW CLOUDS FINALLY CREEP INTO THE
KATY AERODROME. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS TIMING OF THICKER
CLOUDS THERE COULD CHANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES
TO OUR WEST AND WE PICK UP A MORE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FETCH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...VIPOND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page