010
FXUS63 KABR 011110
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
WITH READINGS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND
BEGINS SUNDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY THAT COULD
LEAD TO 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
THIS MORNING, A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS ALOFT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR PARTS
OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDES SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER, LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL NOT HELP, AND NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES WOULD BE EXPECTED OF ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS
THE FRONT PASSES, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CLOUDS HANG ON
A BIT LONGER OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA,
SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER INTO THE 40S, BUT THAT IS STILL
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE OUT OF REACH FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SISSETON, WHICH HAS A FAIRLY LOW RECORD HIGH OF 49 DEGREES, COMPARED
TO A FORECASTED 47. BEYOND TODAY, A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
RIGHT NOW, THE THING THAT REALLY JUMPS OFF THE SCREEN ABOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
212. GLEANING DATA FROM THE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE RAP MODEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW, THE 800-600HPA FRONTOGENESIS PROGS (PARTICULARLY SEEN IN
A CROSS-SECTION PERSPECTIVE) ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH 10 TO 15
MICROBAR LIFT ACCOMPANYING IT. THE FORCING CROSSES THROUGH THE DGZ
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NEGATIVE EPV* TO TAP INTO. NOT QUITE TO
THE POINT WHERE HREF OUTPUT CAN HELP INFORM SNOW-RATES, ETC., BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO DEEP-DIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST SHIFTS.
BUT, WITH ANY BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP, AND TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS SEEN THIS BANDED POTENTIAL SHIFT FROM BEING
ANCHORED ON U.S. HIGHWAY 14 TO BEING ANCHORED ON U.S. HIGHWAY 12.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DO CONTINUE TO PAINT LIGHT
QPF/SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION (MAINLY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
ON UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA) CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THOSE SYSTEMS.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLES S.A. TABLES FOR 850HPA
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) IN THE OUT PERIODS. RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROGS
HAS 925HPA TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -15C AND -22C MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BEING LOOKED AT. SO,
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE 0F AND UPPER TEENS ABOVE 0F CERTAINLY APPEAR REASONABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO WIND SHEAR,
THIS JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE CHANCES FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
REACH UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE AT KATY, BUT
KABR COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONG GUSTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CALM BY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, AND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY,
THEN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE NORTH.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT NO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR A BIT MORE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THAN
OVER AREAS FURTHER EAST.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...BC
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