846
FXUS63 KABR 020524 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL EXPECTED (70-100% CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHERN SD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH A GENERAL 2
TO 5 INCHES FORECAST. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER ON MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN LEFT OVER ACROSS THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT,
BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
925MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C THIS AFTERNOON DROP TO
ABOUT -5C TO -8C ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE BAND OF SNOW THAT
STILL LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SD SUNDAY NIGHT. A BANDED
FEATURE EVENT UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO FAIRLY LOW/MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF
QPF/SNOW FROM INHERITED NBM/WPC GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH, BUT IT STILL GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 12 TOWARDS
THE ND/SD STATE LINE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE NAM FAMILY OF MODELS
IS RATHER FAR NORTH AND MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE HREF NOW THAT WE ARE APPROACHING
EVENT START TIME. HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW IN A 24-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z MONDAY IS PAINTING ITS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY AXIS OF 30-50% GENERALLY ALONG HWY 212. THIS IS
DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO NBM PROBS OF THE SAME VALUE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL (2+
INCHES) OF SNOWFALL IN EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN SD
(CLOSER TO HWY 12 OR 212, OR THE STATE LINE). HOPES ARE THAT MODELS
START LATCHING ONTO SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BROAD AREA OF FORECAST TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM
HWY 14 NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ND SEEMS A BIT BROADBRUSHED FROM WHAT
MAY ACTUALLY HAPPEN IN REALITY (A TIGHTER GRADIENT SOMEWHERE OVER
NORTHERN SD), BUT THOSE DETAILS WILL HOPEFULLY IRON THEMSELVES OUT
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
AS THE BANDED SNOW EVENT FROM SUNDAY EVENING STARTS TO END, THERE IS
STILL SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY STAY AROUND/BELOW A HALF INCH,
WITH THE CLUSTERS HAVING A PROBABILITY OF 20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
WELL AS 40-99 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.1IN OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TUESDAY, THE SNOW STAYS TO THE NORTH OF SD IN ND, THOUGH THERE LOOKS
TO BE A FEW AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES INTO NORTHERN SD.
THIS LEADS TO A 15-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.1IN OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY,
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE LEOLA HILL AND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL AS MID-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES TO PUSH COLD AIR INTO THE
STATE. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE
REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0 OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD.
SOME MID-LEVEL WAA OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WARMING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WEDNESDAY THE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AFTER THAT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND LOW TO MID 20S. SOME MODELS HAVE MORE WAA THAN OTHERS,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS LED TO A COUPLE OF MODELS AND
MEMBERS IN THE ECMWF (UP TO 10% OF MEMBERS) TO SHOW FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING, SPECIFICALLY AROUND WATERTOWN. HOWEVER,
BECAUSE OF THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS HAPPENING AND AN EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT ON IT TO SEE HOW
IT DEVELOPS. WHEN FOCUSING ON THE SNOWFALL THAT COULD OCCUR
WEDNESDAY, THE CLUSTERS HAVE 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OF SNOW
IN NORTHERN SD. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS
SLIGHTLY, WITH QPF VALUES STAYING OUT OF SD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 0Z MONDAY AS BANDED SNOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED IN SNOW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...WISE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page