553
FXUS63 KABR 021632 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AS WELL AS FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
- 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SET UP.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER ON MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
- A 30-50% CHANCE OF SNOW EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND A 20-40% CHANCE OF SNOW EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONGEST IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. ALSO DELAYED THE ONSET/EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THIS CHANGE
WAS RATHER MINOR, THOUGH.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
A SMALL PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT SNOW IS INDEED REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THIS. THE SNOW SHOWER IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY,
EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING MONDAY.
THE MAIN EVENT AND FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A BANDED SNOW EVENT THAT COULD DROP 3-5"
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AS WELL
AS WESTERN MINNESOTA. OVER THE PAST ~48 HOURS, WE HAVE SEEN THE BAND
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS PUSH FURTHER AND FURTHER
NORTH, NOW STRADDLING THE SD/ND BORDER. IDEALLY THINGS WOULD HAVE
SETTLED IN A BIT MORE BY THIS POINT, BUT WITH THINGS CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
HIGHEST TOTALS WILL SET UP AND IF THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE ABR
FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EDMUNDS, MCPHERSON,
CAMPBELL, WALWORTH, AND CORSON COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY BEGIN
AT 20Z TODAY AND RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
BROWN, MARSHALL, DAY, ROBERTS, TRAVERSE, AND BIG STONE COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE ADVISORY RUN FROM 0Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY. THE TIMINGS
REFLECT THE APPROXIMATE START AND END TIMES OF THE SNOW OVER THOSE
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY BEGIN IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS EARLY
AS 18Z. 6Z-12Z MONDAY IS THE PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. BOTH GROUPINGS OF THE ADVISORY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 3-5" THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, THE BAND OF 3-5"
SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WHEN TAKING THE
FORECAST PROGRESSION TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF
COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE UP TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS, ONE SNOW EVENT HAS ENDED, WHILE ANOTHER SNOW
EVENT MAY BE JUST STARTING TO ORGANIZE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE NEXT ROUND OF WAA-
FORCED LIGHT SNOW COULD BE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OVER INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THAT FORCING EVENTUALLY TRANSLATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS (DAKOTAS), BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FALLING SNOW IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO FALL OVER THIS CWA.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE AT
TIMING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROFS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIABILITY/SPREAD, THOUGH, IN ALL THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE CAMPS TO
KEEP THESE TWO TIMEFRAMES FROM LOCKING IN ON HIGHER POPS AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, THESE TWO
TIMEFRAMES ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY RIGHT NOW TO SEE IF/WHEN THE
CONTINUITY STARTS TO ZERO IN ON THESE TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD AIRMASS SEE-SAW BATTLE.
ENSEMBLE TABLE 850HPA ANOMALIES STILL SHOWCASING THE AIR IN PLAY
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST COLD SURGE
IS ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THERMAL ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (WEAK WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM). THEN, THE SECOND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW, BUT THEN A THIRD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA (IN 5
DAYS) APPEARS TO BE IN THE WORKS HEADING INTO SATURDAY. SO, A PRETTY
ACTIVE (ALBEIT COLD) LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING SNOW OVER THE
AREA. IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WHERE
SNOW IS FALLING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE START OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE VEERING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS SNOW BEGINS,
AND WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT KMBG AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER DURING THE
ONSET AND DEPARTURE OF THE SNOW AND MAY NOT HAVE MANY IMPACTS
INITIALLY, SO PROB30S HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FOR SOME SITES. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL NEAR AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THAT WILL SET UP. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND ENDING SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
NOT BEFORE. SNOW OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON ON MONDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM CST /1 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...BC
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