116
FXUS63 KABR 022142
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST TONIGHT NORTH OF HWY 12, WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE (~10% CHANCE) ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER ON MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
- A 30-60% CHANCE OF SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
20-40% CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
SNOW HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO KEEP
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
YET AGAIN, THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF/SNOW ACCUMS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ND/SD STATE LINE. THAT
SAID, CURRENT FORECAST STILL HAS ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF HWY
12, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ANY BANDED-TYPE FEATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ND, OR
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SNOWBAND PROBABILITY
TRACKER (SPT) USING HREF HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
ND. 24 HOURS AGO, IT WAS PINGING FAR NORTHERN SD. SO, THE THEME
CONTINUES WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME, BUT OVERALL, THE SNOW ACCUMS MAY BE A TAD LESS (1-3") IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE 18Z ENDING TIME ON
MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE A LITTLE LONG ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS WHICH SHOW SNOW ENDING EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE ALONE
FOR THE TIME BEING AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT OVERNIGHT.
NEXT WEAK WAVE ALREADY BEGINS TO SHOW UP ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A MINOR WAVE WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH. RIGHT NOW, PRECIP CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 20-40% ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONSTANT WITH MAINLY UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
OVER SD, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE JET STREAM SETS UP. THIS
THEN CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PATHS OF POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEMS IN
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CLUSTERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
EVENING. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOME MODELS HAVE
SNOW MOVING ZONALLY OVER NORTHERN SD WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE THE
SNOW MORE TO THE NORTH IN ND WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLIPPING
NORTHEASTERN SD. THE NBM MIXES BOTH SCENARIOS WITH THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNT BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE CLUSTERS SHOW SLIGHTLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OCCURRING, WITH A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF HALF AN INCH AS WELL
AS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY.
MID-LEVEL CAA IS PUSHED OUT TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY 5-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN COMPARED TO TUESDAY’S 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME MODELS HOLD ONTO THE WAA LONGER, WHICH LEADS TO
THOSE MODELS CREATING PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS LED TO A FEW MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF
TO SHOW FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER, MANY OTHER MODELS AND CLUSTER MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THIS
OCCURRING AND KEEPS THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION OUT OF SD ALL
TOGETHER. FRIDAY WARMS MORE, TO ONLY BE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. DESPITE BEING WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL CAA FRIDAY KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW.
THE SNOW SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY HAS A LOT MORE
VARIATION THAT LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CLUSTERS HAVE VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING, PATH, AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOME MODELS HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM (OVER NORTHEAST SD) WITH HIGHER QPF
VALUES, WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD) THAT HAS LOWER QPF VALUES. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AS SOME MEMBERS OF THE CLUSTER HAVE BARELY 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AND OTHER MEMBERS HAVE UP TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND CLUSTER
MEMBERS CAUSE LOWER PROBABILITIES AND LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THIS EVENT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF MORE CONSISTENCY STARTS TO OCCUR IN THE
MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO SNEAK INTO IFR, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. -SN/SN ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS KPIR/KMBG, THEN OVER TO KABR/KATY
LATER IN THE EVENING. VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN AREAS
OF MORE PERSISTENT SN.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...TMT
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