608
FXUS63 KABR 061739 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1139 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AROUND 1" OF
SNOW OR LESS IS EXPECTED OVER JONES AND SOUTHERN LYMAN COUNTIES.
- A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
STRATUS HAS MOVED SOUTH THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COULD HINDER TEMPERATURE RISES IN THE MEANTIME. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TRENDS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. ON RADARS OUT WEST WE
CAN SEE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE THAT WILL STAY PRETTY WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA. FEW CAMS OR DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS BRING ANY
MOISTURE TO I90 OR THE PIERRE AREA, SO POPS/QPF REMAIN MAINLY
CONFINED TO ALONG THE WHITE RIVER. OTHERWISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. WHILE THIS WOULD PULL IN SEASONALLY COOL AIR, THE DRY
CONDITIONS/LACK OF SNOW COVER MEANS WE'LL PROBABLY STILL PULL OFF
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS SD FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS CAUSES WARM, DRY AIR TO ADVECT OVER SD DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WAA LEADS TO AN UPWARD TREND IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY INCREASING TO 25-30
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY LOOK TO BE
AROUND MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THEN START TO COOL TO BE MORE SEASONABLE AFTER MONDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF SD, BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL GOING TO BE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE RH VALUES START TO DECREASE. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES START TO FALL BELOW 30% SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU AND DON’T RECOVER TILL TUESDAY, WITH VALUES IN THE
LOWER 20S MONDAY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME,
THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF SD CREATE A MODERATELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SD. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INCREASE AROUND 25KTS AND 30KTS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WEST OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU SUNDAY. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. IF ANY FIRES DO
START, THEY COULD BE HARD TO CONTAIN.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM,
HOWEVER THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING MID-
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
VARY THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SD. THIS ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE
IF THE MODELS START TO COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR STRATUS IS NOW AFFECTING KABR/KATY/KMBG. THERE ARE SOME GAPS
DEVELOPING AS WELL AS A QUICKLY MOVING NORTHERN EDGE. SO,
EXPECTATION IS FOR IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z AT ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...VERNON
AVIATION...WISE
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