785
FXUS63 KABR 070532 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1132 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW PUSHING AS FAR NORTH AS PIERRE THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING
FRIDAY MORNING. AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 OVER JONES AND SOUTHERN LYMAN COUNTIES. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BOOTHEEL OF LYMAN COUNTY.
- A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, AND HAS REACHED A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, INCREASED POPS A BIT TO THE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRECIPITATION AREA. THE SNOW LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
A COLORADO LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AS IT DOES,
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH AS FAR NORTH AS PIERRE. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WHERE THE AIRMASS UNDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS INITIALLY EXPECTED.
THERE IS A VERY SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH BANDED GRADIENT IN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE LATEST NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SNOW AMOUNTS NOW
RANGE FROM 1 TO A LITTLE OVER 3 INCHES FROM I-90 SOUTH. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES ARE IN THE BOOTHEEL OF LYMAN COUNTY. ON THE
PLUS SIDE, ONCE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS FRIDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
CLEAR UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE, AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 40S. LET THE MELTING BEGIN! THOUGH, AREAS OF DEEPER
(GREATER THAN AN INCH) FRESH SNOW MAY MODERATE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES,
KEEPING THEM IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. VERY WEAK WAA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
SATURDAY MORNING STARTS THE LONG TERM WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. THESE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN A HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST AND PUT THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS THEN BECOME
WESTERLY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. DOWN AT THE
SURFACE, THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND ON MONDAY A LOW
OUT OF ND STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LASTING INTO
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW THAT THE EC HAS MOVE ACROSS TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OUT PAST 7 DAYS OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH, REALLY ONLY
WITH THAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY SYSTEM. LIGHT POPS (15-25%) MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING AS SNOW THEN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW
MIX DURING THE LATE MORNING, BECOMING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE
WARM UP FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW COMING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD, PEAKING AT 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
MONDAY, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK SOME RECORD HIGHS. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
STILL LOOKING TO GUST TO 25-30 MPH, OTHERWISE, WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD LOOK RELATIVELY NORMAL. AS FOR GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TO VERY HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES NOT CHANGING A WHOLE LOT SINCE YESTERDAY,
SO STILL BELOW 30% WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS AND SOUTH OF KPIR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH LIGHT FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KABR/KMBG/KATY WITH
KPIR GOING FROM MVFR TO VFR HERE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM EAST/NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS OVER CENTRAL SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MMM
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