144
FXUS63 KABR 071203 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
603 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCEPT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A COLD FRONT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ITS WAKE,
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, AND TURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
AS OF 230AM, RADAR INDICATES LINGERING VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID/UPPER 20S AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE CWA. THE
LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE COLORADO LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY, AND WEAKENING. AS IT
SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE CWA, WITH THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA MOVING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SINKING A BIT SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, A CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND OVER MANITOBA INTO
ONTARIO/MN SATURDAY. WE WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH OVERALL DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE CO LOW'S SHORTWAVE
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA.
AS THIS LOW CONTINUES EAST, WEAK WAA WILL FILTER IN WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM ZERO TO -4C THIS
AFTERNOON, COLDEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS, WE MIX OUT PRETTY WELL WITH
FORECASTED HIGHS RANGING IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50 ACROSS THE CWA. NBM
25-75TH SPREAD IS ONLY ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES, WITH THE HIGHEST SPREAD
ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD. WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM 925
TO 850MB OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 20S. BY SATURDAY, EVEN
WARMER AIR FROM THIS RIDGE FILTERS EASTWARD AS 925MB TEMPS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM +6 TO +10C AND 850MB TEMPS 0 TO +4C.
WITH THIS WARMER AIR AND DECENT MIXING ONCE AGAIN, HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE 50S (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). NBM 25-
75TH SPREAD IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LYMAN COUNTY, WHERE UP TO A 10 DEGREE SPREAD
EXISTS (HIGHS RANGE 44 TO 54 DEGREES HERE IN THE 25-75TH SPREAD).
HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS FOR NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH
OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLARK THROUGH GRANT
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL STAY LOW DUE TO THE RECENT
SNOWFALL MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY NIGHT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS HAPPENING. THE PATTERN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO ZONAL
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE SOME BRIEF RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
EC ENSEMBLE 850HPA TEMP ANOMALIES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH SOMETHING SIMILAR-LOOKING SHOWING UP IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES. WHILE MONDAY MAY SEE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS
IN A FEW PLACES, MOST OF THE EXTENDED SHOWCASES RATHER TOASTY WARM
DAYS. ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE
FOREFRONT OF FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THESE WARM/DRY DAYS. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS
AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT FOR MONDAY NIGHT SHOWS STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CAA (925HPA TEMP CHANGE OVER 20C DEGREES IN 12
HOURS) AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES (12-18HPA RISES IN 6 HOURS), POST-
FRONTAL, WOULD SUPPORT A WIND HEADLINE FOR RATHER STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WIND-GUSTS. SOMETHING TO SCRUTINIZE IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE 7-DAY FORECAST CURRENTLY ENDS AT THE END OF THE THURSDAY DAY
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE CWA BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. JUST
BEYOND THURSDAY, MODELS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE BACK-END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
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