725
FXUS63 KABR 080521 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1121 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCEPT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A COLD FRONT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ITS WAKE,
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, AND
TURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO MN AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY, ACCORDINGLY. AS THIS RELATES TO FIRE WX, MIN RH REMAINS
ABOVE 25 PERCENT ON SATURDAY, SO THE MARGINAL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE INCREASED MIXING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 50S. THERE IS A SPREAD WITH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS, THOUGH. GENERALLY, THAT UNCERTAINTY SEEMS TO STEM FROM
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF WEAK WAA BUT ALSO SOME DISAGREEMENT AROUND
THE STRENGTH OF THE MIXING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
SUN DAY MORNING STARTS THE LONG TERM WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
THAT WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN
MONDAY. THESE WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WE GET
MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY, THE EC IS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD WHICH WILL DRAW A LOT OF WARM AIR
UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, KEEPING
THE AREA WARMER.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT (ABOUT 15%), THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
REACHING WIDESPREAD 50-55% BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE REAL
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IF WE ARE GOING TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE INITIAL PUSH RAIN (WHICH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SHOW) OR
IF WE ARE GOING TO COOL DOWN FASTER (AS SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN)
THAT THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE EARLIER IN THE EVENT. RIGHT NOW
THE NBM IS STRUGGLING WITH PTYPES, BOUNCING BETWEEN SNOW, RAIN/SNOW
MIX, AND PURE RAIN TO START OFF THE EVENT. THIS IS GOING TO MAJORLY
AFFECT SNOWFALL FORECASTS.
UP UNTIL THAT POINT, GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS GOING TO BE A CONCERN.
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, ALREADY DRY FUELS ARE NOT
GOING TO GET ANY BETTER AND ANY SORT OF WIND IS GOING TO DRIVE
LEVELS INTO THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH, POTENTIALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES
(IF WE GET STRONG WIND GUSTS). RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET
ABOVE 50% UNTIL FRIDAY. MONDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE ONE OF THE
HIGHER END DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHIFTING WIND
DIRECTIONS AND CAA WHICH WILL MAKE MIXING VERY EFFICIENT. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING POTENTIAL AFTERNOON MIXING OVER CENTRAL SD
UP TO 750MB WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 45 KTS. THE GFS HAS AN EVEN
HIGHER MIXING LEVEL BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS - AROUND 40 KTS,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE STRONGER GUSTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS (DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET), BUT THEY STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, AS MENTIONED BEFORE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY AT THE MOMENT WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS WILL SEE 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR
THE MOST PART. THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE MONDAY, FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND FRIDAY AS THAT WEEKEND
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AROUND 20KTS, AND DIMINISHING
TOWARDS THE EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MMM
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