768
FXUS63 KABR 081146 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
546 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25%,
AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
- EXCEPT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A COLD FRONT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ITS WAKE,
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, AND TURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COLD BE AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. A LOT OF SYSTEM TRACK AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY IS
CREATING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BECOMING
A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT DOES SO. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
CANADA AND OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ONE
SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THESE SYSTEMS SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. WITH THESE LOWS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES STEEPEN UP JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH MORE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH
DECENT MIXING INTO THE 800-700MB LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, AND UP TO 30 MPH DOWNSLOPE OF THE SISSETON HILLS. SUNDAY WILL
BE A BIT BREEZIER AS BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR WITH THE GUSTIER WINDS
ALOFT/BIT STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECASTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (40 MPH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE), HIGHEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD, LEOLA HILLS, AND DOWNSLOPE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND 40% ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SISSETON HILLS. MIN RH WILL BE LOWER FOR SUNDAY, FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER CENTRAL SD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SD. WITH THE ONGOING DRY FUELS, LOW RH, AND GUSTY WINDS, THIS LEADS
TO GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BEING HIGH FOR TODAY AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH
FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHER THREAT SUNDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES AND WESTWARD FROM NOON TO 7PM
CDT.
WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM UNDER THE RIDGE, 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 0 TO +4C AND 925MB TEMPS +6 TO +11C THIS AFTERNOON!
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE RANGING IN THE 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. EVEN WARMER AIR MOVES
EASTWARD AT THESE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, WHICH IS
ABOUT 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE! EC EFI INDICATES VALUES OF 0.6
TO 0.8 FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. PERHAPS THE MONDAY
COLD FROPA IS A FEW HOURS FASTER? AND THE LATE WEEK SYNOPTIC-SCALE
STORM SYSTEM IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY EVENING, IS BEING
FLATTENED. ZONAL/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AGREE ON A LARGE, WOUND-
UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVING ACROSS
THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES LIKELY EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES (70 DEGREES FOR
SOME LOCATIONS), WINDS WITH A WEST COMPONENT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
HUMIDITY LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ALL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL SEEING IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CAA (MORE THAN 20C DEGREES OF
COOLING IN 12 HOURS) AND PRESSURE RISES (6-HOURLY PRESSURE RISE
RANGING FROM 16 TO 22HPA), POST COLD-FRONTAL FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED SOME SORT OF WIND
HEADLINE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR SET-UPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST
(EVEN AT NIGHT) HAVE YIELDED HIGH END WIND ADVISORY/LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING CONDITIONS.
AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN (LOW
CONFIDENCE) WITH A 21 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE. FOR EXAMPLE, IT COULD BE 48F DEGREES (25TH
PERCENTILE) OR 69F DEGREES (75TH PERCENTILE) FOR THE HIGH AT
ABERDEEN ON FRIDAY. AND THAT ONLY COVERS ABOUT 50% OF THE POSSIBLE
TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES FOR FRIDAY. IT COULD BE COLDER THAN 48F OR
WARMER THAN 69F. SYSTEM TIMING IS BECOMING AN ISSUE, TOO. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE EC ENSEMBLE SYSTEM'S CONTROL SOLUTION DOESN'T EVEN HAVE
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT (BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST BY THE WAY),
WHERE-AS THE CANADIAN'S AND GFS'S DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ALREADY
HAVE THE UPPER LOW PLACED IN MINNESOTA/IOWA AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE EC
IS ALSO DRIER ON FRIDAY THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE QPF CLUSTERS ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THESE MODELS' ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SHOWCASE A SIMILAR EC-DRY AND CANADIAN/GFS-WET QPF LOOK AND FEEL ON
FRIDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE-BASED
55-60 POPS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP FOR FRIDAY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY (THIS AFTERNOON) AND THEN SWITCH BACK TO MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ003>007-009>011-015>018.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
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