042
FXUS63 KABR 082132
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45+ MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING BELOW 25%, AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (60S & 70S) ON MONDAY, WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS (50+ MPH)
IN ITS WAKE, WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, TURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ON
TUESDAY.
- A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. A LOT OF SYSTEM TRACK AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY
IS CREATING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE INCREASING
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. EVEN TODAY, HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA AT 21Z SEEM TO BE A TAD LOWER THAN FORECAST, WHICH IS
LIKELY A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE, SOME OF THE COOLER-END GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED INTO THE LOWS,
MORE SO IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE RH VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL GO AHEAD AND STICK WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINALITY OF RH VALUES RIGHT
AROUND CRITERIA. FOR HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY, BLENDED IN WARMER-END
GUIDANCE VALUES, WHICH PUSHES MANY AREAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WITH THE GOOD MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, ALSO DECIDED TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS A BIT FROM NBM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
MONDAY MORNING STARTS THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AND START TO MOVE OUT FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT
THE LOW FOR THE WEEKEND TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE BEING IN THE EC. THE CANADIAN AND GFS STILL SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
JUST NOT QUITE TO THE SAME EXTENT AS BEFORE. THE SURFACE LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NE/SOUTHEASTERN SD SATURDAY MORNING.
AGAIN, ALL THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD ARE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEY START TO MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (ABOUT 15) AS JUST RAIN,
INCREASING TO AROUND 50-75% BY FRIDAY EVENING, STILL MOSTLY RAIN,
SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXING IN OVER WEST RIVER COUNTIES. SATURDAY, WE
START TO SEE THAT TRANSITION TO SNOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AND COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, CHANCES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS BETWEEN 30 AND 50%, HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE
IMPACTED IF THE STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.
ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHER DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST BY FAR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN TUESDAY BEING ONE OF THE
COOLEST DAYS DURING THE PERIOD, THE OTHER BEING SATURDAY BEHIND THE
LOW WHICH ALSO HAS VERY STRONG CAA. OTHER THAN MONDAY, WINDS LOOK TO
BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT
INCOMING LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS FORECAST TONIGHT AT KMBG.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ003>007-009>011-015>018.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT
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