530
FXUS63 KABR 100841
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE TODAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY (20% OR LESS), WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
ONGOING DRY FUELS.
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) MOVING IN.
- A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SYSTEM TRACK, TIMING,
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND CHANGE-OVER AND STRENGTH OF WIND COMPONENTS,
JUST TO NAME A FEW, ARE ALL MAKING THIS A COMPLEX SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (40-55MPH), ALONG WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL LEAD TO RECORD BREAKING
HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON! AS OF 3AM, HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE AREA, MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNWIND OF THE
RIDGE, WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S AND LIGHT
WINDS. HREF INDICATES OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER AT 12Z WITH THE SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN BEHIND IT SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OF 40-55MPH OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG
CAA. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE RISES HAVE TRENDED A BIT DOWNWARD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GFS 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE AT 00Z TUESDAY
INDICATES +2 TO +4MB OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND INCREASING TO +5 TO
+10MB AT 03Z. PRESSURE RISES OF +6 TO +8MB ARE THEN OVER EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SD BY 06Z. EC DOES INDICATE THE STRONGEST CAA OF
-30 TO-40C/12 HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY
WHERE IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST WITH THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB THIS EVENING/NIGHT, PER HREF, RANGE
FROM 30-45KTS AND 35-55KTS AT 700MB, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN SD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CWA, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR EXAMPLE BY 1PM, KABR MIXES UP TO 650MB WITH TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER AT 45KTS AND 53KTS AT 4PM! GFS IS A FEW KNOTS LESS WITH NAM
BEING THE LEAST AT AROUND 36KTS. RAP SHOWS KMBG MIXING UP TO
ABOVE 600MB (!) WITH 65KTS WHEREAS NAM SHOWS 40KTS TO 700MB AT
4PM. EC EFI SHOWS 0.6 TO 0.9 WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF ZERO OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL SD WHICH DOES HELP INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON A
WINDY DAY. SO IT WILL BE ONE OF THESE DAYS WHERE WINDS ARE BREEZY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WE REALLY SEE THE GUSTS INCREASE
ABRUPTLY WITH THE FROPA THIS EVENING AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST,
WHICH WILL BE PURELY DRIVEN BY CAA/PRESSURE RISES, AND NOT SO
MUCH DAYTIME HEATING AT THIS POINT. I WENT AHEAD AND BLENDED IN
NBM/NBM90TH FROM 00Z-12Z TUESDAY TO SHOW FOR THIS. 24 HOURS AGO,
WIND GUSTS WERE IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE OF 60-65KTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL, BUT AS MENTIONED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND WINDS HAVE
DECREASED A BIT. SO HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR
BRIEFLY FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NOT OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. SO
WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL, PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN SD, AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH, HIGHEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY, WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, STRONG WAA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DRY AIR TODAY, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST, SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING AS TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP NICELY AS 925MB TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN +13 TO +20C.
MAX IS 16.6C PER ABR SOUNDING CLIMO. SO WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT, WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO THE BARE GROUND AND STRONG WAA, WHICH
BRINGS FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. THIS
IS AN ASTONISHING 25 TO 37 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE! NDFD INDICATES
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS AT KMBG/KABR/K8D3 TODAY AND POSSIBLE
TIE FOR KPIR. WITH THIS WARM/DRY AIR, RH VALUES WILL TANK THIS
AFTERNOON AT AND BELOW 20%. WITH THIS AND THE WINDS AND ONGOING DRY
FUELS, THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA,
FROM 17Z-01Z. WITH THE STRONG CAA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TO THE
MID 20S. TEMPS DO REBOUND FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS TUESDAY NIGHT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
HAPPENING OVER THE CWA. SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT RISES PUT THE CWA INTO
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW TRAJECTORY, ALOFT, FOR A SHORT TIME. OVERALL,
THOUGH, IT IS A DRY WARM PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL WAA QUICKLY RAMPING
BACK UP HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS STILL A STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK TO CONTEND WITH.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
WHAT'S MORE, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE BEYOND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN THE LATEST ITERATION OF 00Z SOLUTIONS, COMBINED WITH 12Z ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT, CATEGORICAL POPS (75% AND HIGHER) STILL SHOW UP FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. BUT, WONDERING IF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/EC AND CANADIAN ALL PLACE THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY (FURTHER
SOUTH AND FASTER), LIFTING IT OUT THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
NERN IOWA/SERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY (FURTHER EAST/NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS). BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY, MODELS ALL
HAVE THE UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. ALL THAT TO SAY, THIS LATEST TRACK AND TIMING PLACES THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, LARGELY MISSING THIS CWA
(PERHAPS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE GLANCING
THE EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES). THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH/WEST SOLUTION OF THE THREE.
QPF CLUSTERS ANALYSIS IS STARTING TO LOOK REALLY DRY OVER THE CWA
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY DAY 24 HOUR PERIOD, BUT AGAIN,
THAT'S UTILIZING THE 12Z ENSEMBLES OUTPUT. CONCERNED THAT 00Z QPF
CLUSTERS ASSESSMENT MAY PRESENT DIFFERENTLY (LESS QPF OVER THE CWA
LIKE THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE). CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY
OF 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 PM CDT FRIDAY AND 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE DRYING/STABILIZING THINGS FOR DAY 7
OF THE FORECAST.
ALSO, NBM UNCONDITIONAL P-TYPE ANALYSIS IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PERSISTENCE WITH MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN (SMALL, TRANSIENT CORRIDOR
WHERE RAIN P-TYPE IS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW P-TYPE) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SUPPORT IN THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
MODELS FOR WIND AS THIS UPPER LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW
MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-
051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ007-008-011-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 11 PM CDT /10
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-004-009-015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ005-006-010-016-017.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ039-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ039-046.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE
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