431
FXUS63 KABR 110531 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THIS EVENING ON THE
EDGES OF A COLD AIR SURGE.
- A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SYSTEM TRACK, TIMING,
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND CHANGE-OVER AND STRENGTH OF WIND
COMPONENTS, JUST TO NAME A FEW, ARE ALL MAKING THIS A COMPLEX
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
CANCELED ALL HEADLINES A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING. RH IS RAPIDLY
RISING AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE. WINDS BRIEFLY
(LESS THAN 30 MINUTES) GUST AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH ON THE EDGE OF
THAT SURGE BUT OTHERWISE HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WITH NO UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING ANYTHING STRONGER, DECIDED TO LET
THE WIND AND FIRE HEADLINES GO.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
APPROACH 35 OR 40 MPH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD. SEEMS HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
INCREASE A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN UPTICK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG
WARNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. A FEW HOT SPOTS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL, WITH A CONFIRMED HAY BALE FIRE IN BUFFALO COUNTY.
WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN SD AS
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING, WHICH SHOULD START ENTERING NORTHERN SD AROUND 01Z-02Z.
MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STILL NOTICING VERY IMPRESSIVE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. USING ABERDEEN AS AN
EXAMPLE, 925MB TEMPS AROUND +17C THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE
BUILT SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME AS WELL, BUT QUICKLY
MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SD BY AFTERNOON. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S TODAY, TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S (SOUTH
CENTRAL SD) ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK. PRIOR TO DELVING INTO THOSE DETAILS, THE INITIAL FIRST
FEW PERIODS IN THIS TERM WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES AS SOME
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
TIME FRAME. SFC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE US A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND +2C
TO +9C, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
HIGH TEMPS, WHICH IS A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE’LL TOP
OUT EVEN BETTER ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OUT TO THE WEST
AND MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST 850MB
TEMPS INTO THE +10C TO +15C RANGE, WHICH WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPS WILL BE THE CONCERN ON THURSDAY BECAUSE THAT WILL DRIVE UP OUR
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SOME TYPE OF WIND
OR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THAT DAY REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL MEAN A FAIRLY
SIZABLE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WHAT TYPES OF
DIFFERENT WEATHER OUR CWA ENDS UP SEEING BY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT PATH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TAKES THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS OF THE GFS/CMC/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN RELATIVE HARMONY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER,
MORE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS STORM STILL
EXIST, WHICH MAKES THIS FORECAST STILL UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE THEN PROGS TO
HOOK THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE
REGIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN ON OVER INTO IOWA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR AMONGST THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT WILL AFFECT WHEN THE PRECIP; WITH ITS VARYING
TYPES BEGINS AND ENDS.
STICKING WITH THE GENERALIZATION OF THIS EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM, INITIAL ASPECTS OF THIS COULD START BY THE LATTER HALF
OF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE WARMER, MORE MOIST
AIR MASS IS INDUCED INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. INITIAL BOUTS
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THAT STATE.
AS COLDER AIR IS MIXED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, A TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO ALL
SNOW WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION BASED
PRECIPITATION TYPE PATTERN WILL ACCOMPANY THE BACK AND COLDER SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF ALL SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS
THAT BLOWING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRECIP FALLING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. GEFS OUTPUT FOR SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF LIQUID
TOTAL HAS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FALLING INTO A 30-50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY. IT’S SAME OUTPUT PROBABILITY FOR SEEING AT LEAST 3
INCHES OF SNOW SIT AT BETWEEN 20-60 PERCENT. THAT STILL MAKES THIS A
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TRENDS FROM THE
00Z RUN OF GUIDANCE TO THE LATEST 12Z RUNS DO TAKE THE SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM DELIVERING A LESS IMPACTFUL SET OF CONDITIONS THEY HAD ONCE
SHOWN. WE’LL JUST HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OF IT AND DELVE INTO THE MORE
FINER DETAILS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSITIONED WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...MMM
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