010
FXUS63 KABR 112305 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
605 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DRY AIR RESULTING IN
HUMIDITY APPROACHING 20% ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN, A
RAIN/SNOW/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX OR JUST SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY WINDS, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED EARLY ON
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD. OVERALL, A WARMER AIR
MASS WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND +5C TO +13C ACROSS THE CWA - WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED, BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ATTAIN
MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DON'T LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT, THANKS TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS WILL KICK IT
OFF, BUT THEN BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AND A
DOSE OF RAIN, SNOW AND WIND. THE FINER DETAILS ON THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL FOLLOW, BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL IN
ITS OVERALL EVOLUTION AND TRACK.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL, WARM AND DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH LIKE CONDITIONS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY,
MONDAY; WE WILL GET A SIMILAR TASTE OF THAT AGAIN THURSDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY AN ORGANIZING SFC LOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +10C TO +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN
OUR FAR SOUTH NEARING 80 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS,
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON RH
PERCENTAGES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL PUT OUR GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX ON
THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SOME TYPE OF FIRE WX
HEADLINE.
THE SUITE OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROGS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO COME ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE MEAN CLUSTER
ANALYSIS ALL POINT TO THIS SYSTEM ROOTING ITSELF IN THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NATION'S MID-SECTION LATE FRIDAY AND THEN OFF
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRAJECTORY, THE EASTERN HALF OUR FORECAST AREA STANDS THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME WORTH-WHILE MOISTURE, WHILE OUR WESTERN
ZONES MAY BE LIFT HIGH AND DRY? HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL MUCH IN
QUESTION AS IT'S ONLY TUESDAY AND THERE'S ROOM FOR VARIABILITY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SFC LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY BY
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOCATION PROJECTS POINTING TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE WANTS TO TRACK IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TAKES
SHAPE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GETTING TO SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS NOW THAT ARE BOUND TO CHANGE
WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES MORE
CLEAR. THE MILD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THURSDAY SPILLS OVER
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE UPSWING THROUGH THE
DAY. AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS,
IT WILL BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR KICKING OFF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO IOWA, THE
INVERTED TROUGH ROTATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. A COLDER
AIR MASS GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND CHANGES WHATEVER
RAIN THERE IS OUT THERE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND THEN EVENTUALLY
TO ALL SNOW. ENS VERTICAL PROFILES AT SISSETON DO SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF A FREEZING P-TYPE SITUATION THROUGH THE EARLY, PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO
FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM FRIDAY
EVENING IN OUR WEST TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY. A
DEFORMATION BASED PRECIPITATION TYPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN SECTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN ISSUE, WHERE IT DOES END
UP SNOWING, IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRECIP
FALLING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ESSENTIALLY,
BOTH THE NBM AND GEFS OUTPUT FOR SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
LIQUID TOTAL ARE NEARLY MIRRORS OF EACH OTHER. 10-30 PERCENT PROBS
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30-60 PERCENT PROBS IN THE JAMES
VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD TO 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS OUR
FAR EAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEEING AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW SIT
AT BETWEEN 30-60 PERCENT OFF THE NBM FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. AS MENTIONED, THE SITUATION REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, SO STAY TUNED AS THE
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...WISE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page