852
FXUS63 KABR 122049
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AT OR BELOW 20%, AND ONGOING DRY FUELS
HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN, A
RAIN/SNOW/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX, BEFORE TURNING OVER TO ALL SNOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2025
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LEAD TO AN INCREASING GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX. IN THE MEANTIME, OUR FORECAST AREA IS DEALING
WITH A GORGEOUS DAY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON READINGS HAVE PUSHED
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS THAT HIGH PULLS FARTHER AWAY AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THIS FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING TO OUR WEST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON; GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. 925MB TEMPERATURES
RESPOND NICELY UNDER THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN +15C TO +20C. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD
HAVE NO ISSUES REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCALES ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. A FEW MID
TO UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS TOO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE ANTECEDENT DRY
FUELS, THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THEY SAY, EVERYTHING
COMES TO AN END SOMETIME, AND TOMORROW WILL MARK THE END OF OUR VERY
WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2025
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE NBM PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY, NAM
BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPS, SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SURGE INTO THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH SOIL TEMPS LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. THE SOIL
TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERALL, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCE AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE I-29
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 0-12Z SATURDAY, A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MINNESOTA, WITH COLDER AIR INVADING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AROUND 6Z. THE CHANGE OVER APPEARS
TO BE MORE GRADUAL FOR THE JAMES RIVER AND POINTS EAST, WITH SOME
MODELS SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN 6-12Z
SATURDAY. THE NBM SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
UNDER 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18-0Z SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR OVER EASTERN SD WHERE THE NBM SHOWS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE SNOW, ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWFALL. THE BLOWING SNOW
MODEL SUGGESTS SCATTERED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE I-29
CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ONCE THE FALLING SNOW ENDS,
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD END AS WELL.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DRY, BUT COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
30S, TO THE UPPER 40S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM MAY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL, SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAIN
STATES. AS OF NOW, THE HEAVIEST PCPN APPEARS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST
OF THIS CWA. OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN TURN GUSTY BY 18Z THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...VIPOND
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