070
FXUS63 KABR 221848
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK
BRINGING TWO MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. FIRST WILL BE A
40 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN (50 TO 70%) WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S HAVE
KEPT RH ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO FAR. THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
WHICH COULD TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT
OVERALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MODERATED AT THE MOMENT.
THE EDGES OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER SOME VERY LIGHT, SHORTWAVE INDUCED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS SOUTH OF HWY 14 LATE TONIGHT. THE PATTERN CHANGES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SUPPORTS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE'S NOT REALLY ANY
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS THIS CWA, SO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE FORECAST HASN'T WAVERED MUCH BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEEING
MULTIPLE AND CONSECUTIVE MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STARTING THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE POISED NORTH WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SPLAYED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF NE. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY UNDERWAY IN
PARTS OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. GRAND ENSEMBLE PWATS ON
THURSDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5-0.8.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-60 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
SITUATED FROM MOBRIDGE TO WATERTOWN AND POINTS SOUTH. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES(30-60%) OF SEEING A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IN A 24 HR
PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY COINCIDE IN THOSE SAME AREAS WHERE POPS
ARE THE HIGHEST.
SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO ALOFT WILL GIVE OUR AREA A
TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY SETTING
UP RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AS THAT
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
LONG FETCH OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE 2ND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTH WITH 50+ DEGREE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
MODELS HINT AT 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO SOUTHEAST SD. AS A RESULT, GRAND ENSEMBLE
PWATS RANGE FROM 0.7-1.00 SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH POPS RANGING FROM 50-70 PERCENT.
THE ONE THING WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON STILL WITH THIS LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL THAT PARTS
OF OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ON MONDAY. JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE>500 J/KG AND SHEAR>30KTS IS 25-45% SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST VALUES SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD. THESE HIGHER VALUES SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK
ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO GRASP AT THIS POINT THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, RAINFALL COULD BE RELATIVELY
SIGNIFICANT IN LOCALIZED AREAS. AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME, THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE HAS THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IN A
24 HR PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z MONDAY AT 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE FOLLOWING 24 HR PERIOD, ENDING AT 06Z
TUESDAY ARE 30-50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ZONES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page