342
FXUS63 KABR 271514 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1014 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA STARTING THIS
EVENING.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-29.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. QUIET, BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY, CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON TRACK
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THEN AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THERE WITH ALL OF
THE STORMS, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF
COLORADO AND INTO THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN OPEN GULF AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE PUMPING NORTHWARD. BY 0Z, SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY RIDES THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN SD AND INTERACTS WITH A
DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN NE. THIS ALL SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE SFC LOW
THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD DUE TO THIS INTERACTION. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO
SOUTH OF PIERRE AS 0-1 KM HELICITY AND CAPE INCREASE WITH THE LOW
PASSAGE. STP REMAINS LESS THAN 1 THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH. TODAY IS
MUCH MORE OF A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SET UP.
THE SFC LOW PROGRESSES NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN
EASTERN SD BY MONDAY 18Z. EXACT PLACEMENT IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR, BUT
THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR I-29 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIR AND RAIN
BREAK IN CENTRAL SD WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY WHERE STORMS
COULD POP IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (3
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONT IN EASTERN SD/WEST
CENTRAL MN AND A LOWER, MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK ALL THE WAY BACK
INTO CENTRAL SD WHERE DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE FRONT, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
RAIN CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
SET TO MOVE OUT BY SUNRISE. DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE, NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND ALLOW
FOR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO FALL ON THE BACK END. NO ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE EXPECTED, AND RAIN IS STILL BE THE EXPECTED DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT. UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID MAY FALL FROM 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MOVING THE THE JET STREAK OUT FROM ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EARLY LOOKS AT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOW LOW (BUT NOT 0) CAPE AND FAIRLY
LOW (20-35 KNOTS) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS MEANS THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
AFTERNOON DROPS INTO THE 30% RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER, WHICH KEEPS THE AREA ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE
TIME BEING.
A UNIQUE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND, WHERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOWS WILL BE OVER BOTH THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABR FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE
TWO, UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD
BE LOW BEYOND THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE MENTIONED ABOVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A CHAOTIC MIX OF CIGS FROM LIFR TO LOW VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE
WEST TO EAST OR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page