995
FXUS63 KABR 272008
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST TONIGHT AS A BROAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE UP
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ENERGY AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW WILL WORK
ITS WAY TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT, THEN BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. A COMBINATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW, THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, BULK SHEAR OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS, 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET, WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIGHT FOR A TORNADO. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN 2000-3000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS, AREAS WEST OF THERE TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5), AND AREAS WEST OF THERE INCLUDING
ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5). WILL ALSO SEE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
MONDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION, BUT COULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO, SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SD TUESDAY MORNING, THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS AND TEMPERATURES START TO WARM. MID-
LEVEL WAA HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY,
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SD WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO VARY SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
EXITS SD, THOUGH THEY ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE CLUSTERS
HAVING ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO OCCUR.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO GUST
UP TO IF NOT OVER 25KTS, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HELPS TO KEEP SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
35%. EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THINGS ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE NEED FOR A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.
AFTER THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS AND OVER SD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HELPS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWER WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ADVECT WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THIS LOOKS TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WARMING 5-10 DEGREES HOTTER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MAYBE JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING IFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS. THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL LEAVE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...PARKIN
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