156
FXUS63 KABR 280531
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAINLY OVERNIGHT.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A LAYER OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD
AND WESTERN NE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS TO THE
WEST AS THEY SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR AREA. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL SD
THROUGH AROUND 08-09Z BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE CURRENT SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK STILL LOOKS REASONABLE, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (WEST OF ABR).
THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES, WITH THE LATEST
HRRR NEARLY AN HOUR QUICKER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER CAMS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST TONIGHT AS A BROAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE UP
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ENERGY AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT, THEN
BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. A COMBINATION OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THE LOW, THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, BULK SHEAR OF 45 TO 60
KNOTS, 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET,
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A TORNADO. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN 2000-3000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS, AREAS WEST OF THERE TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5), AND AREAS WEST OF THERE INCLUDING
ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5). WILL ALSO SEE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
MONDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION, BUT COULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO, SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SD TUESDAY MORNING, THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS AND TEMPERATURES START TO WARM. MID-
LEVEL WAA HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY,
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SD WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO VARY SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
EXITS SD, THOUGH THEY ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE CLUSTERS
HAVING ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO OCCUR.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO GUST
UP TO IF NOT OVER 25KTS, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HELPS TO KEEP SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
35%. EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THINGS ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE NEED FOR A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.
AFTER THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS AND OVER SD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HELPS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWER WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ADVECT WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THIS LOOKS TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WARMING 5-10 DEGREES HOTTER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AND WILL DEVELOP
AND IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH CURRENT DEVELOPING STORMS, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA (INCLUDING KPIR) WILL MOVE NORTH TO KMBG WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR AND EAST TO KABR AND KATY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 2SM ARE EXPECTED, AND CEILING
HEIGHTS MAY DIP DOWN AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, CREATING
A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE STORMS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. AMBIENT
CLOUDS WILL STILL REACH MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILING HEIGHTS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON,
CREATING ADDITION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...BC
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