078
FXUS63 KABR 281054
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
554 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) EXTENDING BACK INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL WINDS TURN NORTH, AND STRONG GUSTS WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
HEADLINE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BRING
MULTIPLE FRONTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING (~07Z), STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND ARE PROGRESSING NORTH AND EASTWARD. WHILE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY
REMAINED SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR, WIND AND HAIL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE
THREATS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS IS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, LASTING
THROUGH THE MORNING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN WHICH A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-60 KNOTS GIVE GOOD REASON FOR THE SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. GUIDANCE FROM THE
CAMS IN THE MORNING SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER, SO
WHILE THE RISK IS THERE, IT SEEMS THAT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANYTHING THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE INGREDIENTS PRESENT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF AND POTENTIALLY TURN SEVERE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENSUE. IT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WELL BEHIND THE STRONG
STORM ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH FORCING FROM THE FRONT BEING
THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STILL SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DO NOT SHOW GREAT PROMISE.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS
PUSH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA (DIRECTLY
EAST AND WEST OF BROWN COUNTY ALL THE WAY ACROSS).
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ENTER A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MIDWEEK). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LINE ARE NOT SHOWING FLASHES OF THUNDER, SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
MENTION FROM THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OUT
OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AREAS WILL GET DOWN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS, POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS LIFR. STORMS WILL PROGRESS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR SDZ006>008-011.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC
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