707
FXUS63 KABR 281731 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5) TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) EXTENDING BACK
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL WINDS TURN NORTH, AND STRONG GUSTS WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
BEGINNING TO SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. STILL
ANTICIPATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN STILL FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
HEADLINE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BRING
MULTIPLE FRONTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING (~07Z), STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND ARE PROGRESSING NORTH AND EASTWARD. WHILE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY
REMAINED SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR, WIND AND HAIL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE
THREATS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS IS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, LASTING
THROUGH THE MORNING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN WHICH A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-60 KNOTS GIVE GOOD REASON FOR THE SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. GUIDANCE FROM THE
CAMS IN THE MORNING SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER, SO
WHILE THE RISK IS THERE, IT SEEMS THAT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANYTHING THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE INGREDIENTS PRESENT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF AND POTENTIALLY TURN SEVERE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENSUE. IT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WELL BEHIND THE STRONG
STORM ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH FORCING FROM THE FRONT BEING
THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STILL SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DO NOT SHOW GREAT PROMISE.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS
PUSH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA (DIRECTLY
EAST AND WEST OF BROWN COUNTY ALL THE WAY ACROSS).
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ENTER A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MIDWEEK). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF RAIN ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN. BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE
AREA, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ006>008-011.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...PARKIN
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...PARKIN
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