623
FXUS63 KABR 290026
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
726 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 TO 43 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL SD, LOWEST OVER CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WE'VE HAD FREQUENT GUSTS OF 45-50MPH OVER ROBERTS
AND TRAVERSE/BIG STONE COUNTIES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME WEAK
SECONDARY ENERGY STILL AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE EAST TO OVER MINNESOTA BY EARLY
EVENING. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW HAS BEEN RESULTING IN NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
60 MPH AT TIMES. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AS IT TRAVERSES
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, THEN WILL SEE THE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
THE UPPER FLOW IS INITIALLY WEAK FOR MID-WEEK, WITH TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST, PASSING THROUGH EARLY AND LATER ON WEDNESDAY
RESPECTIVELY. OUT OF PHASE AND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM JET RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM JET TO THE NORTH, THERE ISN'T
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNDER ALL THIS, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH
OF AN INCH AT ONLY BETWEEN 20-40%.
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PUSHES THE NORTHERN STREAM JET INTO A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION, DRAWING AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR FRIDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS ZERO,
AS THE HIGH TAKES UNTIL MID-DAY TO MOVE OVERHEAD, AND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED ABOVE 60 IN THE NORTHEAST AND 65 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL SD, THE GRADIENT WITH RETURN FLOW MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE UNLIKELY TO GET DOWN INTO A SITUATION WHERE WE WOULD EASILY
FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER WE'RE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE, WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE SOME POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE. DEWPOINTS INCREASE BETWEEN 50-60 DEGREES AS WE ONCE AGAIN
TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE, MEANING SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. THIS IS ONLY JUST HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE AI/MACHINE
LEARNING CONVECTIVE ANALOGS, BUT NOTHING DEFINITIVE CAN BE
ASCERTAINED SINCE IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. RAIN CONTINUE TO EXIT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND WILL BE DONE BY 03Z TUESDAY AT
PIR/ABR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF SD, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AT MBG/PIR/ABR
BY 09Z TUESDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS BY 12Z TUESDAY
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ006>008-011.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...06
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