530
FXUS63 KABR 290504
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1204 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH 4AM (STRONGEST OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SISSETON HILLS.
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 45 MPH. AS A RESULT, THE
LINGERING WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MAINLY NEAR PIR).
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME WEAK
SECONDARY ENERGY STILL AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE EAST TO OVER MINNESOTA BY EARLY
EVENING. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW HAS BEEN RESULTING IN NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
60 MPH AT TIMES. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AS IT TRAVERSES
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, THEN WILL SEE THE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
THE UPPER FLOW IS INITIALLY WEAK FOR MID-WEEK, WITH TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST, PASSING THROUGH EARLY AND LATER ON WEDNESDAY
RESPECTIVELY. OUT OF PHASE AND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM JET RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM JET TO THE NORTH, THERE ISN'T
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNDER ALL THIS, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH
OF AN INCH AT ONLY BETWEEN 20-40%.
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PUSHES THE NORTHERN STREAM JET INTO A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION, DRAWING AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR FRIDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS ZERO,
AS THE HIGH TAKES UNTIL MID-DAY TO MOVE OVERHEAD, AND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED ABOVE 60 IN THE NORTHEAST AND 65 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL SD, THE GRADIENT WITH RETURN FLOW MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE UNLIKELY TO GET DOWN INTO A SITUATION WHERE WE WOULD EASILY
FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER WE'RE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE, WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE SOME POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE. DEWPOINTS INCREASE BETWEEN 50-60 DEGREES AS WE ONCE AGAIN
TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE, MEANING SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. THIS IS ONLY JUST HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE AI/MACHINE
LEARNING CONVECTIVE ANALOGS, BUT NOTHING DEFINITIVE CAN BE
ASCERTAINED SINCE IT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY AT
ATY. PATCHY FOG WITH A TEMPORARY VISIBILITY OF NEAR 2SM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT PIR TUESDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...06
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