137
FXUS63 KABR 290647
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
147 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LESS THAN 0.25 INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S REACHING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY TODAY. RETURN FLOW
SETS UP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SINCE PRECIP IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MOST PART. STILL, THERE'S A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO WEST CENTRAL MN ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FROPA WEDNESDAY PUSHES A
NOSE OF WAA INTO THE REGION EVEN THOUGH THERE'S NOT MUCH SUPPORT IN
THE JET STREAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST AS
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS/RAIN COULD EASILY MODERATE THOSE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIDE POTENTIAL SPREADS IN THE NBM MEMBERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A BAND UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SETTING UP OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS
RESOLVE A LOW CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE SHOWERS (0-1000
MUCAPE, 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR). THIS LACK OF SHEAR, OR REALLY
ANY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GIVE A DECENT LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINING A NON-
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH TO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM, MOIST AIR
TO BE FUNNELED UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP INTO THE LOW 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS IS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, BUT WILL STILL
FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL HELP ALLEVIATE ANY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MAY STILL BE CAUSE FOR SOME SLIGHT CONCERN.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL COME INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, MOVING A JET STREAK
INTO THE AREA. WHILE STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
BROADER SETUP. CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEANS RESOLVE AROUND 0.25" OF RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR THAT TO MEAN
MUCH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY AT
ATY. PATCHY FOG WITH A TEMPORARY VISIBILITY OF NEAR 2SM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT PIR TUESDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...06
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