184
FXUS63 KABR 300425 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
COULD SHOWCASE SMOKE OVER A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BOTH
ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE.
- SLOW STEADY WARMUP WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY, UPPER 70S/80S
FRIDAY, AND PEAKING MONDAY IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 (5 TO 15
ABOVE). THEN, MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST NEXT MONDAY NIGHT (35-65%
CHANCE OF 0.25IN OR MORE) AND TUESDAY (25-50% CHANCE OF 0.25IN
OR MORE).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS OF 2 PM CDT, SKIES ARE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE 70S.
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SMOKE AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION, THE
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL (NORTH TO SOUTH JET STREAM
ORIENTATION) ON FRIDAY, AND THE SUSPENDED WILDFIRE SMOKE NOTED IN
THE GOES EAST GEOCOLOR RGB NORTH OF THIS CWA WILL ADVECT DOWN OVER
THE CWA, MAKING FOR A RATHER HAZY DAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, UNLESS SMOKE ALOFT ON FRIDAY
STIFLES WARMING SOME. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL MINOR OUT AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND SALVAGE THIS SYSTEM'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE/WIND-SHIFT OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT, PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THIS DECAYING SYSTEM
AND IT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK PRETTY PEDANTIC (LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE). AFTER SOME POTENTIAL PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SMOKE ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING A PLUME OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE DOWN INTO
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY (MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
ZONES), IN ADDITION TO MORE WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON MONDAY WHEN IT FORCES A COLD
FRONT INTO THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MODELS DEPICT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, HAVING
JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES AT
12Z TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES QPF CLUSTERS HIGHLIGHT MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND THE ENSEMBLE-PROBABILITY OF 0.25IN OR
MORE OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 7PM CDT MONDAY AND 7PM CDT TUESDAY IS
60-75%.
SOMETHING THAT MODELS HAVE IN COMMON RIGHT NOW IS STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING, POST-FRONTAL, MONDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MAY BE COMMON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A NORTHERLY WIND PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRIOR TO THE COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THEN, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF REPLACING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IS MAINLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...20
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