504
FXUS63 KABR 310425 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES, IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY
PERSISTING ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY.
- LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S SATURDAY, AND PEAKING MONDAY IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES (5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THEN, MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK AT 60 TO 80% MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IS 45 TO 80%, HIGHEST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 2 PM CDT, UNDER A VALE OF SEMI-THICK SMOKE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING INTO THE 70S. MOST OF THE AREA IS CARRYING A WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH.
THE WILDFIRE SMOKE POURING IN FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO LEAD
HEADLINES RIGHT NOW. NOT IGNORING THE MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL
WAVE TRYING TO RIDE THROUGH/DOWN THE BACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
GENERATE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT
SHOWER. ALL THE WHILE, THE CURRENT SMOKE LAYER ALOFT PERSISTS.
SMOKE MODELS' GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROF/WIND-SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME OF THIS SMOKE MAY BE THICK/DENSE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
BELOW 3SM, AND PERHAPS INTRODUCE THAT SMOKY SMELL TO THE AIR. THE
SMOKE, BOTH NEAR-SURFACE AND ALOFT, IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS WELL. ALOFT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ON
ITS WAY TO MINNESOTA MONDAY. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE SMOKE ALOFT MAY ARREST SOME OF THAT WARM-UP,
THOUGH.
STILL SEEING MODELS TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
MONDAY, AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE-BASED DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCE
ARE STILL ANCHORED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, BUT DO NOT LINGER THE RAIN CHANCES INTO
TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, AND SHOWCASE A ~45-80%
CHANCE OF 0.25 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN BETWEEN 7 PM CDT MONDAY AND 7 PM
CDT TUESDAY.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN LATER ON IN THE PERIOD, AS
THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME. WAY OUT AT THE VERY END
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW, WATCHING FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF
ONE OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE/TRANSIENT UPPER WAVES (WITH ACCOMPANYING
FRONT) WILL BECOME THE "NEXT BEST CHANCE" FOR RAIN.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS STILL ANY SMOKE AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ONE THING SEEMS RATHER CERTAIN; THE COLD FROPA ON MONDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND AND COME OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN DOWN INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIRMASS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY/FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND GATHERING STEAM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THICKER SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MOVES IN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBY AT TIMES,
BUT KABR AND/OR KMBG COULD FALL TO IFR.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...20
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