278
FXUS63 KABR 311442 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. NEAR
SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES, IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- COOLDOWN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK AT 50 TO 70% MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IS 40 TO 70%, HIGHEST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MAIN
THREAT INCLUDES LARGE HAIL (1"+) AND DAMAGING WINDS (60 MPH+)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE DENSE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IS
ENTERING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
WIND OR TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ND INTO
NORTHERN SD. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AS RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCPHERSON AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH HYDE AND HAND COUNTIES, MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
SPINNING AROUND THIS VORT MAX. SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AS OF 2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL LOW,
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORT MAXES SPINNING AROUND IT, OVER ND WITH
RADAR INDICATING ELEVATED SHOWERS (AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES) FROM
ITS CENTER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS RANGE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 MPH. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
THE SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING, WITH THE MODELS AGREEING ON THE WAVE
OVER SD/NORTHERN NE BY 12Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AS THIS WAVE TRACKS SOUTH, PER CAMS/NBM,
SO THEY ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE POP GRIDS (20-30%). THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 15Z OR SO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT TURNING MORE INTO A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ITS TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA AND EXIT THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD/
NORTHWESTERN NE THIS EVENING, KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THROUGH TONIGHT,
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST, BECOMING MORE POSITIVE TILTED. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN NOT ONLY CONTINUING WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
CANADA ALOFT, BUT NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AS WELL, SHOWN BY THE HRRR.
THIS COULD BE THICK AT TIMES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, CREATING
A MILKY SKY, WITH THE SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBILITY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HRRR INDICATES PLUMES OF SMOKE (VARYING IN
THICKNESS AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE THICKER
SMOKE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO MN.
BY SUNDAY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE WITH IT
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST INTO MONDAY AND BREAKING DOWN AS A TROUGH
(WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/PULSES) MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADA
THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 50-
80% MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, IN WHICH WE SEE THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. PROBABILITY OF NBM 24HR QPF>0.25", FROM 7PM
MONDAY-7PM TUESDAY IS 40-70% HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CAPE LOOKS TO
BE 1000-1500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WOULD LIMIT A SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MORE SIOUX FALLS WFO POSSIBILITY SEEING A BETTER TIMING OF
PRECIP AND INSTABILITY. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OUTCOME FOR
NOW. THERE IS STILL TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS, FOR RIGHT NOW THE
SPC HAS A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE RETURN OF
POSSIBLE PRECIP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO WEEKEND.
LIKE YESTERDAY, HOW WARM WE GET TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
THICK THE SMOKE WILL BE. A FEW SITES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER
SD MESONET INDICATED A DECREASE IN SOLAR RADIATION DUE TO THE SMOKE
WITH LESS OF AN EFFECT OUT WEST. WITH THE HRRR INDICATING THICKER
SMOKE AT TIMES WE CAN EXPECT THE SAME THING AGAIN TODAY. SO OVERALL
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE WARMER AIR FROM THE RIDGE, HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT
AGAIN SMOKE MAY KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES. WE START TO SEE QUITE A
SPREAD (5-15 DEGREES WITH HIGHEST SPREAD BETWEEN ABR-MBG AND
SOUTHWARD) IN TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MORNING FOG HAS MOVED OVER ATY AND MBG PRIOR TO 12Z, WITH FOG AND
SMOKE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE MORNING CONTINUES, FOG WILL
DIMINISH BUT THE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM CANADA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. THE SPECIFICS REGARDING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BETWEEN MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR, IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS REPORTED BY THE EPA NOTE
THAT SOME SMOKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MOVE TO THE SURFACE ALREADY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...06
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