900
FXUS63 KABR 011138
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE, DIMINISHING
OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 3 MILES AT TIMES
TODAY.
- 5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK AT 40 TO 80% MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM 70 TO
90%, HIGHEST JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL SD AND PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER OR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR
60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SMOKE IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. ADD THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S, WE ARE GETTING SOME
TEMPORARY FOG AND SMOKE ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS AROUND
ABERDEEN THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE
WATERTOWN AREA. VISIBILITY AT THE ABERDEEN AND SISSETON AIRPORTS
HAVE VARIED FROM 3 MILES TO 1/4 MILES SO FAR THIS MORNING. WE'RE
EXPECTING THESE CONDITONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER. THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE
GUIDANCES INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE AND
ELEVATED SMOKE. MOST OF THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD AS
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE
AND MORE OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION FROM 700MB AND ABOVE BY 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THE SMOKE PERSISTS OVER EASTERN SD AND OUR
WEST CENTRAL MN COUNTIES IS STILL UNKNOWN, WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LASTING LONGER THROUGH THE DAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SMOKE AND THE OVERALL MILKY
GRAY SKY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WE'VE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE QUICK WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN OUR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS, WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ANY
ONGOING WILDFIRES OR PRESCRIBED BURNS. WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS, AS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS.
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND NOTED YESTERDAY, A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE STRONGER STORMS POPPING UP AFTER 19Z OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR WEATHER
STORY AND HWO. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH MORE RAIN OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN, NORTH
OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CANADA. ONE WILL BE OVER MT/ND
AND THE OTHER ONE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 00Z TUESDAY.
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT, PER ENS/GEPS/GEPS, AGREE THAT THE FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO DRAPE OVER MN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN SD
WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NBM
POPS OF 20 TO 90%, HIGHEST FROM THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD
BETWEEN 00-06Z, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
70 TO 90%, HIGHEST JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD. WE WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE THREAT FOR ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING,
MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD. HREF
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INDICATES A PROBABILITY OF 30% FOR 2-5KM
UH>75M2S2 AND 10% FOR UH>150M2S2 FOR THIS AREA INDICATING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SUPERCELLS. HREF ALSO INDICATES CAPE
WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING(1000 J/KG AND DIMINISHING)
WITH SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40KTS. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST SHEAR OF 50KTS
WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH SHEAR
PARALLEL TO FRONT, THIS WILL MAKE STORM MODE MORE LINEAR OR BROKEN
LINES AS COMP REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS. THERE IS A BIT OF A
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY BETWEEN THE CAMS BUT ALL SHOW
THE THREAT IN THIS GENERAL AREA. WHAT COULD HELP THESE STORMS IS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT NAM/EC HAS THIS
OCCURRING MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME WHEN THE
STORMS HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE CWA.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH IT
OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z. GEFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE EXIT
THAN ENS/GEPS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN OVER WY AND WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME WITH MINIMAL POPS OF 15-30%. OTHERWISE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK, CLUSTERS SHOW US IN MORE OF A ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS CANADA WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL A BIT OUT IN TIME
FOR ANY CONCRETE DETAILS. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC AND MOVES
IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLUSTERS
DIFFERING ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND +7 TO +8C
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WITH
THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING, HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY-THURSDAY, RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID/UPPER 70S. WARMER AIR DOES FILTER IN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPS RUNNING BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80, HOWEVER THE
SPREAD IS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES PER NBM. OF NOTE, WITH WINDS ALOFT BEING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ZONAL NEXT WEEK, THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
A SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN, NORTH
OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CANADA. ONE WILL BE OVER MT/ND
AND THE OTHER ONE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 00Z TUESDAY.
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT, PER ENS/GEPS/GEPS, AGREE THAT THE FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO DRAPE OVER MN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN SD
WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NBM
POPS OF 20 TO 90%, HIGHEST FROM THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD
BETWEEN 00-06Z, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
70 TO 90%, HIGHEST JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD. WE WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE THREAT FOR ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING,
MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD. HREF
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INDICATES A PROBABILITY OF 30% FOR 2-5KM
UH>75M2S2 AND 10% FOR UH>150M2S2 FOR THIS AREA INDICATING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SUPERCELLS. HREF ALSO INDICATES CAPE
WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING(1000 J/KG AND DIMINISHING)
WITH SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40KTS. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST SHEAR OF 50KTS
WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH SHEAR
PARALLEL TO FRONT, THIS WILL MAKE STORM MODE MORE LINEAR OR BROKEN
LINES AS COMP REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THIS. THERE IS A BIT OF A
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY BETWEEN THE CAMS BUT ALL SHOW
THE THREAT IN THIS GENERAL AREA. WHAT COULD HELP THESE STORMS IS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT NAM/EC HAS THIS
OCCURRING MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME WHEN THE
STORMS HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE CWA.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH IT
OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z. GEFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE EXIT
THAN ENS/GEPS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN OVER WY AND WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME WITH MINIMAL POPS OF 15-30%. OTHERWISE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK, CLUSTERS SHOW US IN MORE OF A ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS CANADA WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL A BIT OUT IN TIME
FOR ANY CONCRETE DETAILS. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC AND MOVES
IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLUSTERS
DIFFERING ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND +7 TO +8C
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WITH
THE COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING, HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY-THURSDAY, RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID/UPPER 70S. WARMER AIR DOES FILTER IN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPS RUNNING BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80, HOWEVER THE
SPREAD IS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES PER NBM. OF NOTE, WITH WINDS ALOFT BEING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ZONAL NEXT WEEK, THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SMOKE AND FOG HAVE COMBINED THIS MORNING TO BRING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO ABR, PIR, AND ATY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. PIR HAS
MAINLY STAYED IN THE VFR TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH A LITTLE MORE DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE THE EXPECTATION OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL SD (PIR/MBG) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO RETURN BY 16Z AT PIR/MBG, WITH ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ABR/ATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06/MM
AVIATION...06
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