207
FXUS63 KABR 011925
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
225 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADA WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT AND NEAR THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- AFTER ONE LAST WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
TO NEAR 90F DEGREES (5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S (NEAR TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK MONDAY EVENING. ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO FAULKTON TO FREDERICK, THE PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS 40 TO 85%,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
SD AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER OR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AT 2 PM CDT, TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S.
SKIES ARE CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR THE SMOKE ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND HAS CLEARED OFF OVER WEST RIVER FORECAST ZONES. THE
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS ALSO SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS TREND OF IMPROVING VISIBILITY/AIR QUALITY AT GROUND
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN SETTING UP
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
WITH SOME MOVEMENT/CHANGE, FINALLY, SHOWING UP IN THE STEERING FLOW
WINDS ALOFT, SEEING THE PERSISTENT/STAGNANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION (TO THE SOUTHEAST), AND THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE FALLS OUT WEST ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAY'S STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HELPING
TO ESTABLISH SOUTH WINDS, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MAX OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS, AND A
RETURN OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL (FRONTAL) FORCING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF WILL AIDE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND
MONDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
(2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE VERY FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES AS MODELS
(RAP MODEL IS LEADING THE CHARGE) CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE
FROPA TIMING.
ROLLING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE FORECAST SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, INCLUDING NORTHWEST
BREEZES AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT STILL LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS PROG'S, SHOWCASING
PREDOMINANTLY UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS/BAGGINESS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF NOAM WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING THE EDGES ALONG BOTH
THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. WHILE THE PATTERN HAS SOME SEMBLANCE
OF AMPLITUDE, IT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST 2
OR 3 SHORTWAVE TROFS (INSTANCES OF PRECIPITATION CHANCE) TO WORK
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD MARK THE LAST TWO FORECAST PERIODS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE 10 OR MORE DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THE
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL PACK A WALLOP OF A PUNCH (IN SOME
GUIDANCE, 925HPA THERMAL PROGS COOL ~10C DEGREES IN ~3 HOURS TIME),
RENDERING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA POTENTIALLY NOT
WARMING MORE THAN JUST A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS, WITH
SOME MODERATION SHOWING UP FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE EXPECTATION OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN
MET WITH CONFIRMATION, AS TAF SITES AND VISIBILITY REPORTS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING BETTER VISIBILITY REPORTED THROUGH TIME. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT KPIR/KMBG ARE JUST ABOUT FREE OF SMOKE
ALOFT. BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z, KPIR AND KMBG SHOULD BE PREVAILING VFR
WITH KABR AND KATY FAST ON THEIR HEELS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY
FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR BY 03Z (BOTH THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
OBSCURATION AND SMOKE ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE REGION). RAIN
CHANCES START TO APPEAR AT THE KMBG TERMINAL, FIRST, MONDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE TURNING SOUTH WINDS
TONIGHT AROUND TO NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY, STARTING FIRST AT KMBG,
AND THEN SPREADING TO KPIR/KABR AND KATY BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page