633
FXUS63 KABR 020920
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
420 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADA WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER FAR EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SLIDES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC THROUGH MILLER AND
ABERDEEN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS
NEAR 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SMOKE, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 5 MILES, REMAINS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS AREA OF SMOKE LOOKS TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST. FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WE'LL BE
MONITORING A THIN BAND OF THICKER SMOKE ARRIVING JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AT 09Z, THERE WAS LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NOTED
FROM SMOKE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THICKER SMOKE NEARING
NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH AROUND ABR BY 18Z MOVING OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN SD BY 22Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS THICKER
SMOKE DOESN'T LOOK TO STAY AROUND MUCH MORE THAN 2-5 HOURS, BUT
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS ON THE NEARING SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG WIND HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO NEAR 45 MPH AT DO7 AND PHP. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ENHANCE THESE
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AT 09Z THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER STANLEY AND JONES COUNTIES WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BOTH
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST. WINDS HAD SHIFTED OUT OF THE
NORTH AT MBG AND JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. PRECIPITATION IS
WELL POST FRONTAL, AND JUST NEARING CORSON COUNTY. WHILE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WAS JUST LIGHT RAIN, THERE WERE A FEW EMBEDDED CLOUD
FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS IOWA
AND EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO EASTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO MILLER AND ABERDEEN. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, WITH DEUEL COUNTY BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH LINGERING
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN DURING
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INCOMING COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 40S BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
CLUSTERS INDICATE A QUSI-SPLIT FLOW LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN WHICH
LIES IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF A CLOSED LOW
SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN HUDSON BAY AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE IN THIS UP AND
DOWN WAVY PATTERN WITH OVERALL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA (FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST)
SUNDAY AND SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GEFS/ENS BOTH INDICATE THIS, HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT
AND TIMING ARE NOTED BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PACIFIC, STARTS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TIMING, SPEED,
AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME.
WITHIN THIS PATTERN, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST
AND TRACK EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOT A LOT OF ENERGY WITH THIS AS NBM POPS
RANGE FROM 20-40%, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SD, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. A SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST TO EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY (20-40%). WITH THE
LOW IN CANADA MENTIONED ABOVE, ITS SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS CANADA WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASSING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND. STILL A BIT OF A
DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING WITH BROAD BRUSHED NBM POPS OF 20-
45%. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PER ML GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, TEMPS LOOK TO RUN NEAR TO
AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AFTER 21Z MONDAY, POST COLD FRONT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE IN WITH SOME ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. VCTS IS MOST
LIKELY AT KATY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...06/MMM
AVIATION...20
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