225
FXUS63 KABR 021938
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
238 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADA WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN
BOTH AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A LESS SMOKEY AIRMASS
FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- THERE STILL REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILLER TO BRITTON.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE HAIL AROUND 1" INCH
AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE FRONT IS ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA, WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAVING PASSED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE (AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA) AND IS NOW MOSTLY OUTSIDE THE CWA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE EARLY DAY
CONVECTION. THE WAVE THAT IS STILL THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL MOVE LATER TODAY FROM WYOMING AND TRACK ALONG THE SD/NE STATE
LINE, WITH NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. HREF CAPE IS CONCENTRATED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING AT 2K J/KG OVER DEUEL COUNTY, PEAKING AT
22Z. 0-6KM SHEAR AT THAT TIME IS ONLY 20-25KTS HOWEVER. NOT TO
MENTION ONLY ABOUT 100M2/S2 SRH IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THUS, OUR RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
UPSTREAM RAP/HRRR SMOKE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A THICK PLUME
SMOKE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT, HOWEVER UPSTREAM WE'RE NOT SEEING MANY
OBSERVATION STATIONS REFLECTING THIS FEATURE SO THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW BAD SMOKE WILL GET TONIGHT. ABERDEEN SEEMS TO BE
THE WORST, AT 2-5 MILES THUS FAR.
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH SOME SUBTLE/WEAKLY EMBEDDED WAVES.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHEASTERN CANADA, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT.
NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY AT THIS TIMESCALE TO GET INTO DETAILS
REGARDING SPECIFICS BUT THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A STRONG COLD
FRONT AT SOME POINT, BUT AGAIN WHETHER THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CONCENTRATION
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS STILL UP IN THE AIR.
WITH A TRAJECTORY FROM ALBERTA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, WHILE THE
WORST FIRES/SMOKE ARE IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHERN MANITOBA,
SMOKE (BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT) SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE BOTH IN THE
NEAR TERM AND DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE FORECAST
UPPER PATTERN AND WEAKER SURFACE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GETTING SOME MVFR VISBY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AT KABR AND
EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE INTO KATY. OTHERWISE, JUST LOOKING AT STORM
IMPACTS POSSIBLY FOR KATY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 35KTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OTHERWISE JUST NORTH WINDS AROUND 20-25KTS. THAT
JUST RECENTLY IMPACTED KABR AND WILL SHORTLY FOR KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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