388
FXUS63 KABR 031525 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO
WATCHING AN AREA OF SMOKE ALOFT ACROSS ND/MT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST SD. NO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NOTED IN OBS AT THIS TIME
AS SMOKE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AS OF 230 AM, RAIN LINGERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM HAMLIN
TO DEUEL AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S, COLDEST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SD, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
KEEPING THE AREA DRY. IT THEN SHIFTS A BIT NORTH BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN OVERALL
BROAD AND WAVY TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK (WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW) AS A RIDGE HANGS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES AND/OR WEAK PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
DAYTIME HEATING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POPS OF 20-50%. QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH, HOWEVER, IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE EXACT AMOUNTS
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A WAVE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER CANADA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A MID LEVEL LOW OVER
MANITOBA/ONTARIO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH ITS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW.
IT WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK SOUTHEAST AND OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE EXACT TRACK, STRENGTH, AND INTENSITY AT
THIS TIME AS GEFS WANTS TO KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN WHEREAS ENS/GEPS SHOW
IT TURNING INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (AS OF NOW) AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. MACHINE LEARNING DOES INDICATE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE (5-
15%) AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. PROB OF CAPE>500 J/KG AND
SHEAR>30KTS IS 20-35% FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER GRAND ENSEMBLE.
THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FOR ANY KEY SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. BEHIND THIS WAVE, THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH THE CREST EXTENDING WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA, TURNING
OUR WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS RIDGE DOES FLATTEN
OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WINDS RETURN TO MORE ZONAL.
WITH MORE ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, SMOKE SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOST OF THESE FIRES ARE IN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT CLOSER TO TIME AND SEE IF ANY
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE RETURNS TO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE TO NEAR
AVERAGE TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH OVERALL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WE DO SEE A SLIGHT
WARMUP SATURDAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WITH HIGHS
REACHING IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS
COOL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...06
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