134
FXUS63 KABR 032308 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WEDNESDAY, HIGHER
CHANCES (40-60% MOST AREAS) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH,
SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
- COLD FRONT MAY BRING 30-50% CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A LIMITED RISK (2-5%) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS RISK MAY INCREASE AS MODELS EVOLVE TOWARDS SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL SEE THOSE DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. SKIES LOOK TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH
SUGGESTIONS (HREF CLOUD COVER ENSEMBLE MEAN) OF INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING, MORE SO ACROSS CENTRAL SD. A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT WINDS. SO, LOOKING AT FAIRLY COOL (BELOW NORMAL)
LOWS TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. FAVORED COOL
SPOTS SUCH AS THE JAMES VALLEY MAY GET CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG) AND A LACK OF SHEAR, ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDER SPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE.
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY 50-60% ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH, PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY
NOT BE ALL TOO HIGH, AS NBM PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 0.50IN IN A
24-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY IS ONLY 20-40% ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL THEN KEEP OUR EYES ON SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GEFS/GEPS/ENS ALL SHOW DECENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS SHOWN AMONGST THE
GEFS/GEPS/ENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A STRUGGLE TO GET ANY MEANINGFUL DEWPOINTS UP IN THIS
REGION, AS GRAND ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS SATURDAY
EVENING. PWATS ARE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AS WELL. GRAND
ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING AROUND HERE LATELY. MACHINE LEARNING
OUTLOOKS HAVING A TOUGH TIME HIGHLIGHTING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS-BASED ML SEVERE PROBABILITY DOES GIVE
MINIMAL CHANCES (2-5%) ACROSS CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE HOW
THIS EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page