935
FXUS63 KABR 211739 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HEAT INDICES TOP OUT AROUND 100 TO 105 FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC CAP IN PLACE.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD
AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN SUNNY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT
ADVISORY UNTIL THIS EVENING, AS HEAT INDICES REACH 100 TO 105
ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CREEPING
NORTHWARD AND HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH ABERDEEN AS
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SWITCHED BACK TO THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY IS ALSO
VISIBLE ON RADAR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWN COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO HAVE A MORE DOMINATE HOLD ON
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
REGION. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, AND HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS REMAIN A
CONCERN. EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT AN AFTERNOON POP UP STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE BUT IT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AS A VERY STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC CAP REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
+15C TO +20C
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY TIED TO SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN SD EARLY SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY TRACKING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD DURING THE
MORNING.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE BECOMES MORE
CONDITIONAL. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD FOSTER
RENEWED SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY EARLY-DAY CONVECTION, MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500-3500 J/KG, DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KNOTS,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS, AGAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EMERGES
LOCALLY. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION,
RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING A
MORE PROMINENT CONCERN BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY THE
CASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THOSE AREAS FOR A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH PWATS RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD SUNDAY MORNING. SEEMS TO BE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ACROSS KMBG, BUT POSSIBLE IN KPIR AS WELL SO INCLUDED
MENTION OF THIS AT BOTH SITES. MAY EVEN BE SOME IFR CIGS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF A -SHRA/SHRA OR -TSRA/TSRA IN
THE KATY REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN ANY SHOWER, BUT DEPENDING ON INTENSITY, VSBY
COULD DROP INTO MVFR. LEFT MENTION OUT OF KATY TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OR AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-
017>023-036-037-048-051.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page