612
FXUS63 KABR 220939
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
439 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD
AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS EVOLVING SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NOTABLE COOL DOWN INTO MIDWEEK, WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND EVENTUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK.
HI-RES MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A WINDOW FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST SD. THE CELLS IN NORTH CENTRAL SD HAVE EXITED INTO ND
ALREADY, BUT HAVE RETAINED SOME POPS IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHEAST SD.
EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES BY MID-LATE
MORNING LEAVING MUGGY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN
+20C TO +25C WILL SET UP EAST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR ZONES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TONIGHT. WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S, AND AMPLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (25-45 KTS) IN PLACE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY PEAK HEATING. SPC
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FARTHER WEST, ACROSS CENTRAL SD, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN POSTED. SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60+ MPH, LARGE HAIL(POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER) AND A TORNADO OR TWO, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE FRONT AND
INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE
LOW, THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST INTO MN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BY MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA, USHERING IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO +7C TO +12C,
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
LOWER, MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER. THIS
WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHEAST SD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (GEFS/GEPS/ECENS) CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL, THOUGH EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KATY EARLY THIS MORNING, THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL JET ANTICIPATED TO KICK IN. LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE KATY AREA AND AMEND THE FORECAST IF
WARRANTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY INITIALLY, BUT AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION; DURING THE MORNING AT KPIR/KMBG AND LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AT KABR/KATY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMBG; CLOSER TO 12Z AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20/VIPOND
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