429
FXUS63 KABR 230854
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE JUNE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AFTER SFC AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HOLDS SWAY TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, INTERACTING WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN. POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TREKKING NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA TODAY. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, PROMOTING BRIEF SUBSISTENCE, DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY
ON NORTHWEST BREEZES. AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +8C TO
+13C NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S WILL
BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND ASSOCIATED HEAT
HEADLINES. A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 50 IN SOME AREAS, PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER
40S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
TUESDAY BRINGS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE SFC RIDGE PULLS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE FORECAST AREA PICKS UP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS C. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTERACTION WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SD/NE BORDER AREA COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THIS CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
YIELDING A 50-70% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES(PIERRE AREA AND SOUTH) FOR A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUE/EARLY WED, HOWEVER
COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND 30-45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN THOSE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA. INTERACTION WITH THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN THOSE
AREAS. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF THE CWA FOR A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
CONCENTRATES THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE AND EXIT OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES WEST TO EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY GETTING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE MORE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TREND TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER PASSING WAVE IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO AT LEAST
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KPIR AND KATY AT
TIMES TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO MVFR STRATUS. EXPECT BOTH THUNDERSTORMS
AND CIGS TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20/VIPOND
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