824
FXUS63 KABR 242315 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE
BRINGS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE (60% OR GREATER CHANCE) OVER EAST CENTRAL
SD. SEVERE STORM THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S, ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES LOOK TO STAY BELOW 100
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TWEAKS TO
HOURLY POPS AS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD, BUT NOT MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH
OF THE ACTION WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH CURRENTLY, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ND/SD BORDER AREA TONIGHT, WHILE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY
AROUND MID DAY. MUCAPE OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG,
WITH ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DON'T SEE A BIG SEVERE STORM
THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH,
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA.
ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES (50-60%) FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW ONCE AGAIN.
AS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, HREF MEAN PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50-1.75IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MORE SO
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HIGHER END MODEL SCENARIOS (NBM90TH
PERCENTILE) SHOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA IN THE WATERTOWN REGION. THIS IS A 48-HOUR POTENTIAL
ENDING AT 12Z THURSDAY. EC EFI VALUES ARE AROUND 0.6 TO 0.7 ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA, WITH HIGHER VALUES CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST SD. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE, THEN ON
INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO FRIDAY AS THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S
AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE 80S AND 90S. COULD EVEN SEE DEWPOINTS
NEARING 70 DEGREES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AS WELL.
GEFS/GEPS/ENS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, LIKELY BEING THE
INITIATION POINT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION.
FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A ZONAL
LOOK SATURDAY, WITH FLOW THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS ON THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY SHOW READINGS FROM +20C TO
+23C, COOLING TO AROUND +15C TO +20C BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS EQUATES
TO HIGHS BEING IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH THOSE HOTTER READINGS IN
THE 90S MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE SLIGHT COOLING TAKES
EFFECT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE
IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER CIGS WILL THEN REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20
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