966
FXUS63 KABR 261110 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH THE LONGEST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM ALONG WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF
HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THIS FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOT PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TAME OR
SUB-SEVERE, BUT IT HAS BEEN PUTTING OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/CAMS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL SD INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA CLOSER TO MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOGGY
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING THE THE I-29
CORRIDOR WEST INTO THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION. AREA WEBCAMS IN THESE
AREAS INDICATE SOME WIDESPREAD FOG OCCURRING AND IS DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS FROM DEUEL AND GRANT COUNTIES NORTH INTO ROBERTS, MARSHALL
AND DAY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ANYTIME
SOON, AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z-15Z AND AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SD. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OUT A
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS STUBBORNLY REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SD FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL SD MOVES EAST, IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO SFC RIDGING NOSING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES FROM A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ONTARIO.
SO, COVERAGE MAY BECOME LIMITED OR SCATTERED WITH TIME. WITH THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES, PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER IN
THOSE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EITHER WANING OR PUSHING
EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. WOULD ANTICIPATE JUST GENERIC SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE. CLOUDS WILL REALLY BE TOUGH
TO BREAK FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL SD
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY THE END OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE OUR AREA A RESPITE
FROM THE PRECIP, BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST INTO MN ON FRIDAY WHILE LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT IN
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEST TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
UPPER TEENS C TO THE LOW 20S C IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD
DAYTIME HIGHS MID 80S TO LOW 90S FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE TO LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE
SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO WORK
EAST AND SOUTHEAST DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AS OF NOW, CONSENSUS
INDICATES THERE COULD BE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WOULD BE
ACROSS ND AND IF THIS VERIFIES, THOSE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFFECTING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
OTHER COULD POTENTIALLY BE AROUND THE BLACK HILLS REGION WHERE
STORMS COULD INITIATE AND SHIFT OFF EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS PERHAPS AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. JUST WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT PLAYS
OUT.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
PERSIST. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN FRIDAY'S OUTLOOK.
SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY. A
SIMILAR SETUP TO FRIDAY'S ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, EARLY NEXT WEEK IT COULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AGAIN AND TURN MORE QUIET ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR THEY
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH IMPROVEMENTS AT KPIR/KMBG BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT KABR/KATY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. KATY MAY NOT SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF CYCLE AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOGGY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ007-008-
011-020>023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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