470
FXUS63 KABR 290032 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) AGAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO
IN FAR EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN.
- TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SLIGHT RISK. THE FIRST
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO AROUND SISSETON.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE IN THE
CROSS-HAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. HI-RES CAMS ARE
POINTING TO A START TIME OF 22Z AROUND THE SISSETON HILLS. 35 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND 3000 TO 4500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAP
(+10- +12C) PROVIDE A DECENT SET UP FOR DISCRETE CELLS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. LOW LEVEL HELICITY INCREASES TOWARD 1Z ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN STP OF 1 TO 2 ON THE RAP13,
SO CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO EITHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
TO 45 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5Z. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY POST FRONTAL WITH AN AGITATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 2000 TO 3000
J/KG OF CAPE IN CENTRAL SD AT THE TIME CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
AND JONES/LYMAN COUNTY WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE LEFT WET
SOILS AND CREEKS NEAR BANKFULL.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE, AND PROBABLY WILL BE,
DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE KATY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS THERE AT KATY.
ELSEWHERE, THE KPIR/KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PROB30S ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THAT, ALTHOUGH TIMING WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
BEFORE IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10
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