435
FXUS63 KABR 290550 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. WIND AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO IN FAR
EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN.
- TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SLIGHT RISK. THE FIRST
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO AROUND SISSETON.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE IN THE
CROSS-HAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. HI-RES CAMS ARE
POINTING TO A START TIME OF 22Z AROUND THE SISSETON HILLS. 35 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR AND 3000 TO 4500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAP
(+10- +12C) PROVIDE A DECENT SET UP FOR DISCRETE CELLS WITH HAIL
AND WIND. LOW LEVEL HELICITY INCREASES TOWARD 1Z ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN STP OF 1 TO 2 ON THE RAP13,
SO CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO EITHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
TO 45 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5Z. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY POST FRONTAL WITH AN AGITATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 2000 TO 3000
J/KG OF CAPE IN CENTRAL SD AT THE TIME CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
AND JONES/LYMAN COUNTY WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE LEFT WET
SOILS AND CREEKS NEAR BANKFULL.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION, BUT WILL
BE WATCHING ROUND TWO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL SD INTO
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO AFFECT
KPIR/KMBG (BETTER CHANCES AT KPIR) UP THROUGH 12Z, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TRYING TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS KABR/KATY. IN GENERAL, CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR, BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF +SHRA/+TSRA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TMT
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