826
FXUS63 KABR 290940
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
440 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-55MPH. MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT
WITH LOW SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO MONDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING AS WELL.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 ONCE AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WY AND
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS, WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES IN
STRONGER CORES. A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX WILL HOLD AND
HOW MUCH, IF ANY, DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WE'LL SEE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE FURTHER POP ADJUSTMENTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING, YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CAMS ARE GENERATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD LATE
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH, THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE,
AND AGAIN WE'LL BE LOOKING AT LOW SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY.
ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR SHOWER
POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER EAST.
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OUT THAT WAY AS
WELL.
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET GETS GOING AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALSO BEGINS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION, BUT WILL
BE WATCHING ROUND TWO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL SD INTO
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO AFFECT
KPIR/KMBG (BETTER CHANCES AT KPIR) UP THROUGH 12Z, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY TRYING TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS KABR/KATY. IN GENERAL, CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR, BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF +SHRA/+TSRA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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